[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210044
SWODY1
SPC AC 210042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW
MOT 45 N BIS 20 WNW ATY 25 W RWF 30 E MKT 10 N LSE 25 SSW VOK 35 NE
DBQ 25 NNE MLI BRL 25 W MCK 20 NW LHX 30 W PUB 50 NNE DGW 10 WSW SHR
25 SW LVM 15 NE BTM 60 NE MSO 55 NNE FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MTC 20 NW LAN
30 W BEH 30 SSW PIA 30 S IRK 10 W STJ 50 SE GLD 40 NW LBL 15 N PVW
MAF 40 SSW P07 ...CONT... 75 SSE GBN 40 N GBN 30 W IGM 40 N LAS 55
ENE U31 25 ESE EKO 15 E OGD 15 SSE RWL 35 SE CPR 50 E WRL 15 SSE COD
30 SSW WEY 25 N SUN 55 NW BOI 25 SW BNO 30 SSE MFR 15 SSE CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW 4OM 35 NNE EPH
30 ESE EPH 30 E ALW 25 S LWS 35 E PUW 50 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE
GLH 50 N GLH 40 ENE DYR 30 NE SDF 40 ESE LUK BKW 40 NE CLT 35 SSE
FAY 50 E ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS SEWD INTO IA...

...SRN MN/IA WWD INTO NEB AND CO...
MATURE MCS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS CURRENTLY MOVING SWD ACROSS
NRN IA AT AROUND 30 KTS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S
COUPLED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NEB AND CNTRL/SRN IA
WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. EXPECT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO
CONTINUE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SWD ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN IA. MCS
SHOULD TEND TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS CAP INTENSIFIES
ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS.

WWD DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
MCS GUST FRONT INTO SERN SD/NERN NEB WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL BEING PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS MCS...PLEASE SEE MCD
1406.

OTHER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING
OVER THE NEB PNHDL SWD INTO ERN CO WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-5000 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS AREA...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
RESULTANT STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN ORGANIZED...SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE
EVENING.

...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS...
00Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
CNTRL MT SEWD THROUGH NERN WY AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN SD. RUC
OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MLCAPES
RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN MT TO AS HIGH AS 4000-4500
J/KG ALONG/S OF BOUNDARY OVER S-CNTRL SD/N-CNTRL NEB. DESPITE
GRADUALLY BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER NRN ROCKIES /PER WATER
VAPOR LOOP/...SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
STORMS. CURRENT VWPS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT INDICATE STRONG VEERING
THROUGH LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL WITH 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO ND...AND
POSSIBLY NWRN SD.

...CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS SWD TO THE NERN GULF COAST...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER ERN KY AND NRN
AL WITHIN MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME WRAPPING WWD AND THEN SWD AROUND
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. 00Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT AIR MASS
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASING IN NLY
WINDS ABOVE 6 KM AGL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THROUGH 03-04Z...PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...WA/ORE...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM W OF
RDM TO S OF PDT WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO E OF
RETROGRADING ERN PACIFIC LOW SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
LIKELY NEGLIGIBLE OR SUBSIDENT ACROSS REGION. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVER THREAT APPEARS
TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1407.

..MEAD.. 06/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.