[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 202010
SWODY1
SPC AC 202009

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
DLS 45 W RDM 30 SSE EUG 10 SSE ONP 45 S AST 15 SSW HQM 35 NNW OLM 15
SSW SEA 20 W DLS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW
MOT 45 N BIS 55 NW ABR 35 E ABR 15 N RWF 20 ESE MSP 35 WNW RHI 30 S
IMT 10 WNW GRB 10 NNW ALO 30 SSW SUX 20 S MHN 20 W AIA 40 SSW 81V 15
W SHR 25 SW LVM 15 NE BTM 60 NE MSO 55 NNE FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MTC 20 NW LAN
30 W BEH 20 WNW BRL 20 E LWD 25 N FNB 40 NNE GLD 15 SE LAA 20 ENE
CVS 20 WSW MAF 90 SW P07 ...CONT... 75 SSE GBN 40 N GBN 30 W IGM 40
N LAS 55 ENE U31 25 ESE EKO 15 E OGD 15 SSE RWL 35 SE CPR 50 E WRL
15 SSE COD 30 SSW WEY 25 N SUN 55 NW BOI 25 SW BNO 30 SSE MFR 15 SSE
CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE
GLH 50 N GLH 40 ENE DYR 30 NE SDF 40 ESE LUK BKW 40 NE CLT 35 SSE
FAY 50 E ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW 4OM YKM 40 SSE
YKM 30 W PDT 10 SW ALW 30 WNW PUW 20 N 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WI...WWD INTO MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN
ORE/SWRN WA...

...MS VALLEY...

EARLY MORNING MCS HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS CNTRL MN INTO WCNTRL WI. 
STRONGEST SURGE IS EWD INTO WI...WITH ONLY A SLOW SWD PROPAGATION
INTO SRN MN/SERN SD.  STRONG INSTABILITY IS FEEDING INTO THE SWRN
PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY NEAR THE FSD REGION...APPARENTLY ENHANCED
BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION.  CURRENT THINKING IS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL CONTINUE ON UPSHEAR SIDE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF
HEATING.  THIS CLUSTER SHOULD EVENTUALLY SAG SWD INTO NRN IA WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  DOWNSTREAM...WEAKER
INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN WI MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO THAT AREA
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF ARCING SQUALL LINE.  WITH TIME THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC...INITIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  LATEST THINKING IS THIS MAY OCCUR FIRST OVER CNTRL
PORTIONS OF MT...NEAR THE LITTLE BELTS/BIG SNOWY MOUNTAINS. 
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THIS REGION WHERE SFC DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. AIRMASS IS BECOMING QUITE
UNSTABLE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL.  WITH
TIME...AN MCS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN MT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE
ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED CLOUD COVER
HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED ON THE NORTH/EAST SIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS
REGION.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A SLOW-GROWING
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  GIVEN THE INHIBITION OBSERVED
AT 19Z ON RAP SOUNDING...THIS MAY STRUGGLE FOR A FEW HOURS.  WITH
TIME ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NRN NEB...AND ACROSS NERN WY/WRN SD.  SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

...NWRN U.S...

UPPER LOW HAS PROGRESSED LITTLE OFF THE NRN CA/ORE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/REGION OF ASCENT CONTINUES
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE STRONG SUNSHINE IS
OBSERVED.  IT APPEARS WITH TIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF ORE...THEN SPREAD NWD ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
SWRN WA.  LARGE HAIL COULD EASILY OCCUR WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
THAT DEVELOP.

..DARROW.. 06/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.