[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201631
SWODY1
SPC AC 201630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
DLS 45 W RDM 30 SSE EUG 10 SSE ONP 45 S AST 15 SSW HQM 35 NNW OLM 15
SSW SEA 20 W DLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE GGW 20 S ISN
55 SW DVL 25 SW BJI 40 NE IWD 25 WNW IMT 30 S CWA 30 ESE MCW 50 SSW
MHE 35 ESE CDR 40 W CDR 20 SSW GCC 25 S SHR 45 NE COD 40 SSE 3HT HLN
55 NNE FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE
GLH 50 N GLH 40 ENE DYR 30 NE SDF 40 ESE LUK BKW 40 NE CLT 35 SSE
FAY 50 E ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE GBN 40 N GBN
30 W IGM 40 N LAS 55 ENE U31 25 ESE EKO 15 E OGD 15 SSE RWL 35 SE
CPR 50 E WRL 25 NW WRL 45 ENE WEY 25 N SUN 55 NW BOI 25 SW BNO 30
SSE MFR 15 SSE CEC ...CONT... 40 NNE MTC 20 NW LAN 30 W BEH 20 WNW
BRL 20 E LWD 25 N FNB 40 NNE GLD 15 SE LAA 20 ENE CVS 20 WSW MAF 90
SW P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW 4OM YKM 40 SSE
YKM 30 W PDT 10 SW ALW 30 WNW PUW 20 N 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM MN TO
MT....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR NW ORE/SW
WA....

...NRN PLAINS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD INTO WRN MN.
 THIS CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED BY LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF ITS COLD POOL...WHERE ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS A SEPARATE
E-W BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS IN CENTRAL MN.  THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS ENEWD FROM SD INTO CENTRAL
MN...WHICH MAY HELP MAINTAIN THE STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW
DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THIS
CONVECTION...BUT DEEP LAYER WINDS/SHEAR BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER
TO THE E OF THE ONGOING STORMS AND THIS MAY TEND TO COUNTERACT THE
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING STORMS...A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
MOVING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SD AND NE WY.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TURN TO ELY/ESELY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE N OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE OUTFLOW AIR MASS.  GIVEN
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S INTO S CENTRAL MT AND 60S
INTO SE MT AND ADJACENT SD/ND...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY.  ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS MAY
FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE BLACK HILLS WNWWD INTO SRN MT...AND THEN MOVE EWD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR
PERSISTENT BOW ECHOES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...NW ORE/SW WA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NWD OVER SW
ORE...AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW NEAR 41 N AND 130
W.  SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...ALONG WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BENEATH 7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR AND W OF THE CASCADES.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL TEND TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING GUSTS.

...SE STATES THIS AFTERNOON...
THE COLD CORE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT WWD OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS.  12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS NEAR THE MID LEVEL COLD
POOL...AND IN THE REGION OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW/SHEAR W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 06/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.