[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201250
SWODY1
SPC AC 201248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
GGW 25 ENE SDY 30 NNW JMS 25 SSE ELO 15 NNW IMT 20 ESE AUW 15 SSE
MCW 55 SE 81V HLN 50 NNE FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE OSC 15 SSE LAN
CGX 35 W MLI 20 E LWD 25 N FNB 40 NNE GLD 15 SE LAA 20 ENE CVS 20
WSW MAF 90 SW P07 ...CONT... 80 SSE GBN 40 NNW GBN 10 ENE IGM 30 NNW
SGU 40 ENE MLF CAG 35 WSW LAR DGW 25 SW GCC COD 30 WNW JAC 35 ENE
SUN 20 N BOI 45 ENE 4LW 15 SSE LMT 35 S MFR 15 NW 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE
GLH 30 NNE GLH 15 SSW MEM 40 SE MKL 10 NE BNA 60 W LOZ 50 N JKL 30
NE HTS 40 WNW EKN 20 NE EKN 15 ENE ROA 25 SE DAN 15 WSW GSB 20 ENE
ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/NRN GREAT LAKES...
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
TODAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.  SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY PRIMARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN MN SWWD ACROSS NRN SD
AND WNWWD INTO CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER MCS/S WILL COMPLICATE THE SURFACE PATTERN
TODAY. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AREA OF UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE
DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF SD...SERN ND AND
SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 55-65F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXTENDING
NWWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN/CENTRAL MT.

BOW ECHO MOVING INTO SERN ND AT 13Z WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO
THE MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT INTO AT LEAST
W-CENTRAL MN.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
PRECEEDING THE BOW ECHO.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO FAR NRN WI...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
PRIMARY COLD FRONT.  THEREFORE...OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
EWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NRN WI THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT FROM WRN MN WWD.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING CAP UNDER STRONG
HEATING AND MAY SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THESE BOUNDARIES BY 21Z INTO SD/SRN ND AND INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MT. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING DEGREE OF NWD RETURN OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO
FAR SWRN SD EARLY THIS MORNING.  MLCAPES WITHIN WARM SECTOR ACROSS
SD MAY EXCEED 4000 J/KG ACCORDING TO LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG SRN FRINGE OF MODEST WLY
FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS INTO MT...SHEAR WILL BE MARKEDLY STRONGER
UNDER 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW.  DESPITE THE WARM MID
LEVELS...ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER EVOLVE
INTO AN MCS...OR EXPECT INCREASING SSWLY LLJ TO DEVELOP ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AFTER DARK.  THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY
THREAT INITIALLY...EVOLUTION INTO A BOW ECHO MAY OCCUR FOR THE THIRD
NIGHT IN A ROW AND SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD AND POSSIBLY
SWRN MN LATER TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL EXTEND N-S
FROM N-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY.  THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS STRONG
HEATING OCCURS WITHIN WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS.  THOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST...
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET
WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE LESS THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS AS REGION SETTLES UNDER MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER
ALOFT...INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

...PAC NW...
REGION REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TODAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AREA OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  THUS...AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN POSE AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.