[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200511
SWODY1
SPC AC 200509

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
MOT MOT 10 NE JMS 35 ESE BRD 45 WNW EAU 25 S RST 30 N FOD 50 SSW PHP
30 SE BIL 45 NW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 40 NE MCB 40 SE
GLH 30 NNE GLH 15 SSW MEM 45 N MSL 55 SE BNA 40 WSW LOZ 50 N JKL 30
NE HTS 40 WNW EKN 20 NE EKN 15 ENE ROA 15 SSW DAN FAY 20 ENE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE GBN 40 NNW GBN
10 ENE IGM 30 NNW SGU 40 ENE MLF CAG 10 S LAR DGW 25 SW GCC COD 30
WNW JAC 35 ENE SUN 20 N BOI 45 ENE 4LW 15 SSE LMT 35 S MFR 15 NW 4BK
...CONT... 55 SE OSC 15 SSE LAN CGX BRL STJ RSL LBL 20 WSW MAF 45 SW
MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/SRN MN NWWD INTO ERN
MT...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY DOMINANT RIDGE FROM NRN MEXICO/SRN PLAINS INTO THE
N-CNTRL STATES...WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
E COAST. RIDGE AXIS WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT AS AMPLIFYING
CNTRL CANADIAN SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES...AND HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO SRN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY SAG SWD
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN/CNTRL GREAT LAKES WHILE WRN
EXTENSION RETREATS NWD INTO CNTRL MT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS.

...CNTRL/SRN MN WWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO ERN MT...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT
20/12Z ALONG/N FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL MN WWD INTO
THE DAKOTAS WITHIN RATHER WEAK...BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN. THOUGH SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...AVAILABILITY OF POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E.
MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG/ S OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT STORM
INTENSIFICATION/RENEWED DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/SRN MN WWD INTO SD. STRONGEST BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN TO THE N ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH CNTRL
CANADIAN SYSTEM. HOWEVER BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS INVOF OF FRONT AND
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT OWING TO
INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE NEAR DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE. HERE...COMBINATION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND RELATIVELY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 45-60 KTS/ WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO CLUSTERS OR A MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL ND AND POSSIBLY
NWRN SD.

...ERN TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO FL...
COMBINATION OF RATHER COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER
TODAY FROM THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS SWD INTO FL. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND
MAIN CIRCULATION...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE WEAK CAP WILL AID THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TSTM BY AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND
MAXIMA FROM ERN KY INTO WRN AL AND ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL FL
PENINSULA MAY SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...PACIFIC NW...
RATHER COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES E OF ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE
TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY LATER TODAY FROM NWRN ORE NWD TO
PUGET SOUND WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG. APPEARS THE
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG ACROSS AREA
AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY OWING TO SLIGHT WWD RETROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW. NONETHELESS...DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT SHOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.