[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200058
SWODY1
SPC AC 200056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
ELO 30 NNE BRD 50 WSW AXN 25 NNE 9V9 30 N MHN 10 WNW AIA 45 SSE DGW
10 W DGW 35 E WRL 50 NNW COD 35 ESE 3HT 30 ESE GDV 60 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MQT 25 E MKT
35 NNE SUX 15 WSW HLC 20 SSE LAA 15 SSW LHX 15 WSW PUB 50 WNW COS 15
SSE CPR 25 SSE COD 45 ESE WEY 20 E MQM 50 WNW SUN 70 S S80 45 NNE
S80 55 N 3DU 50 SW GGW 20 NNW P24 70 N DVL ...CONT... 90 WNW FCA 65
E 63S 40 SW GEG PDT 35 WNW BKE 30 ENE BNO 70 NW OWY 50 W OWY 75 SE
4LW 35 WNW SVE 25 S RBL 35 ENE UKI 20 NE UKI 35 W UKI ...CONT... 15
SSW HQM 25 SW OLM 15 SE OLM 20 E SEA 25 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 20 WSW CNM
40 E ROW 40 NE HOB 45 NNW BGS 25 SSE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S TLH 45 SSW CSG
25 W LGC 15 W RMG 15 SW LOZ 40 ESE PKB 30 WSW MRB 35 NE RIC ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO
PORTIONS OF SERN MT AND ERN WY...

...RED RIVER VALLEY SWWD INTO MT/WY...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2500-4500 J/KG/
EXISTS THIS EVENING FROM N-CNTRL MN SWWD INTO SD AND THE NEB PNHDL
ALONG AND E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR RRT TO LOW
PRESSURE NEAR PIR SWWD ACROSS THE NWRN NEB PNHDL AND THEN MORE NWWD
INTO NRN WY. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS
OVER NWRN MN TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS
ERN ND INTO ERN SD ALONG INTENSIFYING LLJ AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD
1394.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT
ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SERN MT/NERN
WY...POSSIBLY INTO WRN SD. DESPITE RATHER STRONG CAP OBSERVED ON 00Z
RAP SOUNDING...WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
ELEVATION HAVE LIKELY ERODED THIS FEATURE OVER NERN WY WHERE STORMS
ARE INITIATING. ELY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT BENEATH 30-35 KTS OF
WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS OR A
MCS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING INTO PORTIONS
OF SWRN ND AND WRN SD.

FINALLY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND SUSTAINED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAVE LOCALLY WEAKENED CAP ALONG FRONT OVER THE
NRN NEB PNHDL WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 3000-4000
J/KG PER 00Z LBF SOUNDING/. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN
POINTS TO THE N...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY.

...SERN STATES...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS EWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS WITH REGION OF
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB/ AND RESULTING
WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER
THEY SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...ORE...
FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD
ACROSS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /PER
00Z SLE SOUNDING/ HAS SUSTAINED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS THIS
EVENING OVER THE CASCADES OF NRN/CNTRL ORE. OBSERVED STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD.. 06/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.