[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191957
SWODY1
SPC AC 191956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
INL 20 SSE BJI 55 WNW AXN 50 SE MBG 15 SSE GCC 35 S SHR 25 SSE BIL
55 ENE BIL 35 SSE GDV 60 N DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15
S ORL 40 W DAB 15 WNW GNV 30 SW VLD 15 ESE ABY MCN 30 WNW AGS 15 SSW
CAE 15 SSE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MQT 25 E MKT
20 ENE FSD 25 NE IML 30 E LIC 20 NW LHX 10 N PUB 30 S 4FC 15 SSE CPR
25 SSE COD 45 ESE WEY 20 E MQM 50 WNW SUN 70 S S80 40 ENE S80 40 NNE
3DU 50 SW GGW 20 NNW P24 70 N DVL ...CONT... 90 WNW FCA 65 E 63S 25
SSW 4OM 40 ESE DLS 35 WNW BKE 30 ENE BNO 70 NW OWY 50 W OWY 75 SE
4LW 35 WNW SVE 25 S RBL 35 ENE UKI 20 NE UKI 35 W UKI ...CONT... 15
SSW HQM 25 SW OLM 15 SE OLM 20 E SEA 25 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 20 WSW CNM
40 E ROW 40 NE HOB 45 NNW BGS 25 SSE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S TLH 45 SSW CSG
25 W LGC 15 W RMG 15 SW LOZ 40 ESE PKB 30 WSW MRB 35 NE RIC ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 20 SSE SAT
15 W AUS 20 SSE TPL 40 E TPL 35 WNW HOU 10 WNW GLS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PARTS OF SC/GA AND NE FL...

...NRN PLAINS AREA...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN
MANITOBA INTO NERN ND TO A LOW LOCATED BETWEEN BIS/MBG...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY THEN TRAILING SWWD TO THE SWRN SD/NEB BORDER AREA AND INTO
CENTRAL WY.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3000-3500 J/KG AND FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED...HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NRN PLAINS APPEAR
TO PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. IN ADDITION...LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT WITH FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS AIDING IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  IF STORMS DO DEVELOP... THEY SHOULD BECOME SEVERE
QUICKLY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING
SUPERCELLS.  HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN MT...
WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ANY STORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A
NOCTURNAL LLJ NOSES ITO THIS REGION.  DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OVERNIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD.

...SE STATES...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS
OF THE FL GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS...AND MOVING INLAND ALONG THE
GA/SC COASTAL REGION WILL REMAIN FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SRN GA WILL ALSO REMAIN A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WITH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER GA AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW FOR
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER SRN GA/NRN FL TO THE SC COASTAL AREA WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS.  HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREATS UNTIL AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.

A FEW PULSE STORMS WITH HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS WRN PARTS OF SC/NC...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY SHEARED.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/
STABILIZES.

....ORE...
VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE AIR
MASS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...NOW OVER NRN CA...WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS ORE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AIDING IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
CLOSER TO THE CASCADES WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
HIGHER.

...TX COAST...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE MIDDLE TX
COAST...GIVEN PLUME OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER THIS REGION THAT HAS
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS
STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE...WITH LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 06/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.