[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191625
SWODY1
SPC AC 191623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15
S ORL 40 W DAB 15 WNW GNV 30 SW VLD 15 ESE ABY MCN 30 WNW AGS 15 SSW
CAE 15 SSE CHS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
INL 20 SSE BJI 55 WNW AXN 50 SE MBG 15 SSE GCC 35 S SHR 25 SSE BIL
55 ENE BIL 35 SSE GDV 60 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S TLH 45 SSW CSG
25 W LGC 15 W RMG 15 SW LOZ 40 ESE PKB 30 WSW MRB 35 NE RIC ORF
...CONT... 30 WNW MQT 25 E MKT 20 ENE FSD 25 NE IML 30 E LIC 30 SW
LIC 25 WNW COS 40 N 4FC 15 SSE CPR 25 SSE COD 45 ESE WEY 20 E MQM 50
WNW SUN 70 S S80 40 ENE S80 40 NNE 3DU 50 SW GGW 20 NNW P24 70 N DVL
...CONT... 90 WNW FCA 65 E 63S 25 SSW 4OM 40 ESE DLS 10 NNW BNO 80
SE BNO 75 N WMC 75 SE 4LW 35 WNW SVE 25 S RBL 35 ENE UKI 20 NE UKI
35 W UKI ...CONT... 15 SSW HQM 25 SW OLM 15 SE OLM 20 E SEA 25 ENE
BLI ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 20 WSW CNM 40 E ROW 40 NE HOB 45 NNW BGS
25 SSE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 20 SSE SAT
15 W AUS 20 SSE TPL 40 E TPL 35 WNW HOU 10 WNW GLS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF
SC/GA AND NE FL....

...NRN PLAINS AREA...
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT STORMS IN ND HAVE MOVED NEWD INTO ONTARIO.
 IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION...A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED INTO NW MN...WHILE THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM
NE ND SWWD TO SW SD/NE WY.  THE NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH CRESTING THE
RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT ACROSS SD.

12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EML/CAP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING AT
BIS/RAP...AND SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT ABR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. 
ESTIMATED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 90S IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THUS ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NARROW
BAND OF ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT.  STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
NEAR AND SE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE OF 3000-4000
J/KG/...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. 
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN THE REGION
OF FOCUSED WAA AND ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR AND NE OF THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...AND SPREAD ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT.  THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH SUPERCELLS
AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS.

....SE STATES TODAY...
THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION /NEAR AGS/ SHOULD DRIFT SEWD/EWD
THIS AFTERNOON.  BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION NEAR/SE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...WHERE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. 
FARTHER S...MID-UPPER FLOW AND SHEAR ARE STRONGER OVER N FL...BUT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.  STILL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PERSISTENT STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL ELY COMPONENT IS
ENHANCED.  ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...ORE AREA...
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE NW CA/SW
ORE COASTS.  WITHIN THE BROADER LOW...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROTATE NWD FROM NW CA TO WRN/CENTRAL ORE LATER TODAY.  SURFACE
HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES NEAR -20 C...COULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CASCADES.

..THOMPSON.. 06/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.