[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191237
SWODY1
SPC AC 191235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
DAB 20 WNW GNV 30 SW VLD 20 NNW ABY 20 N MCN 30 ESE AGS 30 E CHS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
INL 50 ESE BJI 50 WSW AXN 40 NW HON 10 SSW 81V 15 SSW COD 25 SSE LVM
25 ESE 3HT 45 SSE GDV 55 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT EAU 30 W OTG
15 S ANW 35 NNE IML 40 WSW IML LIC 30 WNW COS 30 E EGE RWL 15 SSE
LND 35 N BPI 25 W JAC 30 E SUN 35 S BOI 80 N WMC 30 ESE 4LW 10 SSE
MHS 20 SSW CEC ...CONT... 15 SSW HQM 20 WSW OLM 25 E OLM 45 E SEA 70
ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW AQQ 15 SSE DHN
10 ESE AUO 10 NNE CSV 15 SSW JKL 25 SE MGW 30 W MRB 30 NNE RIC 20 N
ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 25 SW CNM
25 NE INK 45 ENE FST 25 S P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...NRN PLAINS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE EDGED SWD INTO MORE OF ND IN WAKE OF
SEVERE MCS MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
GENERAL FRONT POSITION LIKELY EXTENDING FROM NWRN MN INTO SWRN
SD/NRN WY BY LATER TODAY.  THOUGH AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST WITH MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW
POINTS...STRONG CAPPING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN ON FRINGE OF MODERATE MID
LEVEL WSWLY FLOW AND...SHOULD CAP WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...ENSUING ACTIVITY WILL BE WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  MORE LIKELY AREA FOR
INITIATION SHOULD BE NEARER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SRN MT/NRN WY
AND WRN SD LATER TODAY...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.  THESE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING.  MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ONGOING STORMS AND FROM
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AS SLY LLJ
INCREASES...WHICH WILL SPREAD A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/WINDS AWAY
FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PORTIONS OF ND/NRN SD OVERNIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST...
REGION WILL AGAIN EXPERIENCE A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS GA SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE
REGION BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...AS -10C TO -12C H5 TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HEATING STEEPEN LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
STRENGTHENED WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS /I.E. H5 WINDS FROM 20-30 KT/
ALONG BASE OF UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST THIS MORNING EAST OF LEE TROUGH FROM
FAR SERN WY/WRN NEB INTO ERN CO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN
AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES DESPITE DIURNAL MIXING. AFTERNOON HEATING AND
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD THEREFORE INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  SHEAR REMAINS RATHER
WEAK OVER CO...THOUGH MID LEVEL SWLY WINDS REMAIN STRONGER ACROSS WY
AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
THREAT LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING.

...WRN ORE...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COAST TODAY...THOUGH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL EXTEND INLAND WITH -18C TO
-20C H5 TEMPERATURES OVER NRN CA AND MUCH OF ORE.  APPEARS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THIS REGION BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS MAY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR BRIEF ORGANIZATION TO ENSUING MOIST
CONVECTION.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.