[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190509
SWODY1
SPC AC 190506

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
ELO STC 25 WNW RWF 30 W HON 25 SW COD 25 E MQM BTM 35 E HLN 25 WNW
P24 55 NNE MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
DAB 20 WNW GNV 30 SW VLD 20 NNW ABY 20 N MCN 30 ESE AGS 30 E CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW HQM 20 WSW OLM
25 E OLM 45 E SEA 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 25 E MQT EAU 30 W OTG 15 S
ANW 35 NNE IML 40 WSW IML LIC 30 WNW COS 30 E EGE RWL 15 SSE LND 35
N BPI 25 W JAC 30 E SUN 35 S BOI 80 N WMC 30 ESE 4LW 10 SSE MHS 30
ENE CEC 15 SW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW AQQ 15 SSE DHN
10 ESE AUO 10 NNE CSV 15 SSW JKL EKN 30 NNE CHO 30 NNE RIC 20 N ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 25 SW CNM
25 NE INK 45 ENE FST 25 S P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF GA/SRN SC AND
NRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH DAY ONE
PERIOD WITH CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC
AND APPALACHIANS/ATLANTIC COAST...AND DOMINANT RIDGE FROM NRN MEXICO
INTO THE N-CNTRL STATES. SOME FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE WILL OCCUR
FROM S-CNTRL CANADA SWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF ND/MN AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NERN B.C./NWRN ALBERTA DIVES SEWD INTO CNTRL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL ND TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER NERN WY WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E WITH TIME AS NRN PORTION
OF BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD INTO MN...WHILE WRN EXTENSION
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NRN WY/SRN MT.

...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS...
REMNANTS OF TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SERN MT WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT 19/12Z OVER PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL ND...LARGELY BEING DRIVEN
BY MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTIONS ALONG NOSE OF SLY LLJ AXIS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
INTENSIFICATION/BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON OVER
ERN ND INTO NWRN MN WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
DESPITE MARGINALLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUSTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SWRN MT AND NWRN WY. MAINTENENCE OF LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT N
OF FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF ERN PACIFIC LOW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARY MECHANISMS INITIATING DEEP CONVECTION.

DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ALONG
COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT INTO SERN MT LATER THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO PORTIONS OF NRN SD/ND OVERNIGHT. STORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE FROM MORE DISCRETE ELEMENTS INTO A MCS OR CLUSTERS TONIGHT
WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

...PORTIONS OF GA/SRN SC AND NRN FL...
POCKET OF COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB/
WITHIN BASE OF ERN CONUS TROUGH...WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY NUMEROUS BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...IT APPEARS THAT WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH AREA MAY FOCUS MOST
INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR
/OWING TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER JET AXIS THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH/ WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY EVEN MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS.

...ORE COAST EWD TO THE CASCADES...
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -20 C AT 500 MB COUPLED WITH
DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...WITH A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.