[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190055
SWODY1
SPC AC 190053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N
GFK 25 NE JMS 35 NW MBG 25 WSW REJ 25 SSW 4BQ 45 NNE SHR 60 E BIL 50
ENE BIL 70 NNE OLF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
AND 15 SW GSP 30 ENE CAE 45 NNW CHS 35 W CHS 25 N SAV 45 WNW SAV 45
ENE MCN 30 SSW AHN 30 W AND.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 55 W HOU
CLL 55 W LFK 10 NNW LFK 30 SE ESF 40 W GPT 35 WNW PNS 20 W DHN 15 N
CSG 45 NW CHA LEX 45 SE PKB 40 N SHD 30 N RIC 25 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 45 N BRD 10
S ABR 30 S RAP 30 WNW BFF 45 SSW DGW 55 WSW GCC 40 WSW SHR 10 SE WEY
OWY 45 SSW 4LW 15 SSE CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 40 NNE MRF
35 SE INK BGS 35 N SJT 45 N JCT DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT
AND ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF GA AND
SC...

...ERN MT/ND...
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE FRONT FROM E OF MOT TO W OF BIS TO
LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN WY...AND A SECONDARY...WEAKER BOUNDARY JUST W
OF MOT AND P24. DESPITE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...IT APPEARS THAT SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DAYTIME HEATING HAVE WEAKENED CAP CONSIDERABLY /PER 00Z BIS
SOUNDING/. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEING WHETHER OR NOT
INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. GIVEN ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED
BY 00Z BIS SOUNDING...ANY STORMS THAT DO INDEED DEVELOP SHOULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MOIST INFLOW ALONG DEVELOPING SLY LLJ FROM CNTRL/ERN SD INTO ERN ND
WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO STORM CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT
EWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ND WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER W...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXIST INTO SERN MT ALONG COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NEWD OUT OF ERN ID INTO S-CNTRL MT WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF IMPLIED
ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. LIGHTNING DATA AND REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WWD EXTENSION OF THIS INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR BIL. IF STORMS CAN
BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MT.

...GA/SC...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
EVENING FROM NEAR AHN TO NEAR CAE WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THROUGH 03-04Z...BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND COLLAPSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD.. 06/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.