[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 182007
SWODY1
SPC AC 182006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
RRT 25 NE JMS 35 NW MBG 40 NNE REJ 65 WSW DIK 15 NNE SDY 70 NE ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
VRB 35 SSW AGR 35 E PIE 55 S GNV 25 WNW GNV 15 S JAX 30 NNE AYS 55
SW AGS 15 WNW AHN 25 W AND 45 ESE AND 25 SE CAE 10 SW CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 55 W HOU
CLL 55 W LFK 10 NNW LFK 35 SSE ESF 40 NE MSY 30 ESE MOB 20 W DHN 10
N CSG 45 WNW CHA LEX 45 SE PKB 35 N SHD 45 SW RIC 20 ESE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 45 N BRD 10
S ABR 25 SW RAP 40 WSW SHR 10 SE WEY OWY 45 SSW 4LW 15 SSE CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 40 NNE MRF
35 SE INK BGS 35 N SJT 45 N JCT DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SWD TO CENTRAL FL...

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
WV IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NWRN ND AND A
SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ERN ID/SWRN
MT.  THE LATTER TROUGH WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS MT THIS EVENING AND
INTO SRN CANADA BY 12Z SUNDAY PROVIDING ASCENT FOR POTENTIAL STORMS
ACROSS SRN-ERN MT INTO THE EVENING.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NERN-CENTRAL MANITOBA SWWD INTO FAR NWRN ND TO THE
VICINITY OF THE MT/WY BORDER.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING S OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG OVER
CENTRAL DAKOTAS/.

CLOUD STRUCTURE /BILLOWS/ ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUGGESTED THE AIR
MASS REMAINS CAPPED ALONG/S OF THE COLD FRONT. GREATER VERTICAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED NORTH OF THE BORDER ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS SERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL/NERN MANITOBA WHERE AIR
PARCELS WERE REACHING THE LFC. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION INTO ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN SURFACE
BASED STORMS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH
THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.  ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG/N OF COLD FRONT AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES SE INTO CENTRAL ND.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY INCREASING ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION PER ID SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GLANCING ND OVERNIGHT AND WAA ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING PLAINS SLY
LLJ.  PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

...SE ATLANTIC STATES...
THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF AREAS OF A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THESE INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF SRN SC AND ERN GA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL
FL.  A WEAK AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDED FROM ALONG THE GA
COAST NWWD TO NRN GA.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST TO MARGINAL
VALUES FARTHER NWWD OVER NRN GA/WRN NC.  COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING SRN ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. 
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS...
WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.

FARTHER S ACROSS FL...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY ALONG
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED E-W ACROSS EXTREME NRN FL /S OF
JAX/...AND ACROSS CENTRAL FL ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
AND WITH INTERSECTIONS OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEA/
LAKE BREEZES.  SIMILAR TO FARTHER N...SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
PRIOR TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAY TIME HEATING.

...SW LA/SE TX...
EARLY AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN LA NWWD ACROSS SE-NW TX...WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
THIS FRONT.  ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED HIGH THETA-E
ADVECTION INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SE
TX/SWRN LA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  NLY MID LEVEL WINDS PER AREA VWPS INDICATED ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE INTO STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

..PETERS.. 06/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.