[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181629
SWODY1
SPC AC 181628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
RRT 25 NE JMS 35 NW MBG 40 NNE REJ 65 WSW DIK 15 NNE SDY 70 NE ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW
VRB 15 WSW AGR 15 S PIE 35 N PIE 20 WNW ORL 25 WNW DAB 15 S JAX 30
NNE AYS 55 SW AGS 15 WNW AHN 25 W AND 45 ESE AND 25 SE CAE 10 SW
CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 55 W HOU
CLL 55 W LFK 10 NNW LFK 35 SSE ESF 40 NE MSY 30 ESE MOB 20 W DHN 10
N CSG 45 WNW CHA LEX 45 SE PKB 35 N SHD 45 SW RIC 20 ESE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 45 N BRD 10
S ABR 25 SW RAP 40 WSW SHR 10 SE WEY OWY 45 SSW 4LW 15 SSE CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 SSE MRF 35 ESE MRF
20 SSW MAF BGS 35 N SJT 45 N JCT DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS ND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
SAVANNAH RIVER SWD TO CENTRAL FL....

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM NW TX TO WRN
KS/NEB...NWD TO ND.  HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTS HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE PLAINS...AND 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM AMA/DNR/RAP ALL SHOW 
TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM FROM THE MOIST AXIS THAT ARE 3-5 C WARMER NEAR
THE BASE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.  THEREFORE...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL ND WHERE A BAND OF AT LEAST WEAK ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING SLOWLY EWD.  HERE...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 F AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...THOUGH
MLCIN COULD STILL EXCEED 50-75 J/KG.  ASSUMING STORMS FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...SE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DRIFTING SEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS...WITH SMALLER SCALE WAVES NOW ROTATING EWD OVER N FL
AND COASTAL GA/SC...AND SEWD FROM ERN TN TOWARD N GA.  AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LOW HAS FORMED BETWEEN MCN-AGS...WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SWWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND WWD TO SRN LA.  A RELATIVELY
THICK BAND OF CLOUDS OVER S GA/N FL IS LIMITING SURFACE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...WITH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING
WITHIN A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND TO THE
S OF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL FL.  THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THESE TWO AREAS OF STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT SEVERE STORMS. 
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS.

...SW LA/EXTREME SE TX THIS AFTERNOON...
A FEED OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE SW INTO A NW-SE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS SW LA/E TX MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  NLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
STRONG INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE HAIL FORMATION IN THE STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WARM PROFILES WILL LIMIT HAIL SIZE.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 06/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.