[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181252
SWODY1
SPC AC 181251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
INL 35 NNW RAP 10 NNE GCC 35 NNW SHR 55 WSW MLS 35 W GDV 70 NE ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
DAB 15 E CTY 30 WSW VLD 20 W MCN 35 WSW AHN 25 NW AND 30 ESE SPA 40
SW SOP 25 ESE FAY 25 E EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLS 55 NE CLL
40 N GGG 30 SSW JAN 60 SW SEM 10 N TOI 30 ENE CHA 25 SW 5I3 25 SSW
CRW 40 N SSU 30 N RIC 20 SSW ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 30 SW HIB 10
NE ATY 20 S DGW 20 SSW RKS 30 ENE SLC 30 E ENV 65 W OWY 15 SW 4LW 30
WNW LMT 30 N OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...NRN PLAINS...
SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
BECOME ORIENTED NE-SW FROM N-CENTRAL ND INTO NERN WY BY LATE TODAY. 
SECONDARY LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WY THIS MORNING WILL
LIKEWISE DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO WRN SD BY LATER THIS EVENING.
STRONG CAPPING ACROSS WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. 
HOWEVER...HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD OVERCOME CAP AND MAY
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL ND LATE IN THE DAY.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG.  SHOULD CAPPING BREAK...SHEAR WILL
BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/SMALL BOW
ECHOES WITH NEWD MOVING STORMS INTO THE EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OR DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT OVER ND AS SLY LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

FARTHER WSW...NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF 50+F SURFACE DEW
POINTS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NERN WY/SERN MT BORDER
REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF SURFACE LOW.  CAPPING
WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.  HOWEVER...STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SRN MT/FAR NRN WY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SEVERITY AS THEY
MOVE ENEWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST...
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY
STEEP / I.E. 6.5 C/KM FROM H85-H5 / ATOP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
MASS.  WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SERN GA
AHEAD OF NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY APPROACHING
THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 65-70F SURFACE DEW POINTS...
EXPECT HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WHICH WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES...AS WELL AS A
FEW SUPERCELLS.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.