[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180545
SWODY1
SPC AC 180543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
INL 30 NNW FAR 30 SW JMS 40 NW MBG 35 WSW REJ 20 ENE 4BQ 30 E MLS 20
S ISN 70 NE ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
DAB 45 ESE VLD 20 ESE ABY 20 W MCN 35 WSW AHN 25 NW AND 30 ESE SPA
40 SW SOP 25 ESE FAY 25 E EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E NIR 35 SE HDO 40
WSW BWD 30 NNW MWL 35 S DUA 45 ENE SHV 30 SSW JAN 60 SW SEM 25 E MGM
30 ENE CHA 25 SW 5I3 25 SSW CRW 40 N SSU 30 N RIC 20 SSW ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 30 SW HIB 10
NE ATY 35 WNW YKN VTN 15 SSW CDR 20 S DGW 20 SSW RKS 30 ENE SLC 30 E
ENV 65 W OWY 15 SW 4LW 30 WNW LMT 30 N OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MT THROUGH MUCH OF ND
INTO NWRN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN GA THROUGH MUCH OF SC
AND SRN NC...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL STATES
FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE WRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SRN
CANADA AND TEND TO SUPPRESS THE NWRN EXTENTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NRN ND. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
DAKOTAS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND
FROM CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH NWRN SD AND NERN WY. IN THE EAST...A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND
INTO GA AND SC DURING THE DAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PERSIST
FROM SRN SC WWD THROUGH SRN GA AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.

...NRN PLAINS...

STEEP LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO
3000 J/KG WILL BE LIKELY IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR DUE
TO PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LIFT MAY EXIST ALONG AND ON COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN ND TO INITIATE STORMS AS CAP WEAKENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND DEVELOP SWWD MAY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE WRN
EXTENTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LIFT ALONG
AND N OF THE FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
EVOLVE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND. A COUPLE TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER NERN ND.

...CNTRL AND SRN GA...NRN FL THROUGH SC....

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE
E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL/SRN GA EWD INTO SC. SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX
DROPPING SEWD FROM THE TN VALLEY. WEAK CAP...AND INCREASING FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
VORT MAX SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON THE ORDER OF 30
TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 06/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.