[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180101
SWODY1
SPC AC 180059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
BPT 25 NW BPT 40 S LFK 55 W LFK 60 E ACT 45 W TYR 30 NW TYR 20 ENE
GGG 35 SE SHV 30 E ESF 30 WNW BTR 15 SSE 7R4.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE
MOT 55 S Y22 15 NNW CDR 45 W CDR 45 ENE DGW 45 S 81V 20 NNW GCC 20
NNE SHR 45 S BIL 35 SSE 3HT 40 NW LWT 60 ENE CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 25 SE CLL 30 W
TPL 45 WSW BWD 45 SW SJT 30 ESE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 40 NE MRF
20 ENE HOB 50 SE CVS 35 WSW DHT 20 ENE 4FC 35 NE CPR 35 S SHR 25 E
COD 35 SE JAC 60 S BYI 50 SSW TWF 55 SW BOI 45 NNW 4LW 4BK
...CONT... 60 N DVL 35 W JMS 9V9 20 ESE BUB 25 NW CNK 30 WNW SLN 30
NE LBL 65 ENE AMA 25 SW LTS 35 SE SPS 50 SE PRX 20 W MLU 15 SSW MEI
20 ENE TOI 50 WNW SAV 15 SE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK BML 35 E
MWN PWM ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 20 NW ABE 25 NNE IPT 25 NW ELM 10 NNE
ROC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND ERN MT INTO THE
WRN DAKOTAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MT AND LIFT NEWD INTO
SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTING NEWD
ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF NWRN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THIS OCCURS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MT AND WY...REACHING
THE WRN DAKOTAS VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT REMAINS VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITHIN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING JET AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GRADUALLY SPREADING THROUGH
ERN MT LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN FROM
ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AS THE LOW DEEPENS THIS EVENING. THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND MAINTAIN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER ERN
MT...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. ACTIVITY MAY REACH
PORTIONS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS...ESPECIALLY WRN ND LATE TONIGHT.



...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN LA NWWD THROUGH NERN TX IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 30-35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. A CLUSTER OF STORMS
CONTINUES FROM NERN TX INTO NRN LA...AND THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS IT SPREADS SEWD. FARTHER WWD...TOWERING CUMULUS
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NERN TX...AND AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS AND
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MAY BE
HELPING TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO COOL...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGESTS IT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THIS AREA.

..DIAL.. 06/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.