[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171949
SWODY1
SPC AC 171948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
BPT 55 N HOU 30 NE CLL 15 E ACT 20 NNE SEP 30 SSE SPS 45 SSW ADM 35
NNW GGG 25 NNE ESF 20 ESE HEZ 45 SW LUL 40 SSE MOB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE
MOT 55 SSE Y22 25 SW GLD 45 ESE LIC LIC 55 ENE DGW 35 NW GCC 35 NW
WEY 20 N HLN 35 NNW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 20 NE AUS 30 NW
JCT 25 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65 S MRF 25 WSW FST 25 E HOB 50 SE CVS 40
NNE TCC 25 NW DEN 35 NE CPR 35 S SHR 25 E COD 35 SE JAC 60 S BYI 50
SSW TWF 35 NE OWY 90 WNW OWY CEC ...CONT... 65 W RRT 40 S FAR FSD 25
NNE MKC 50 WSW MEM 45 ESE GWO 45 NE MEI 15 E MGM 40 NNE ABY 45 SSE
AGS 25 SSW FAY 30 SSW GSB 25 NW ECG 25 W SHD 35 NNE CRW 35 ENE PKB
25 WSW BFD 20 NW EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST TX TO
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SRN LA/E TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SRN AR...WILL TRACK
SEWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST TONIGHT.  A SECOND MCV...NOW LOCATED OVER
NERN TX...WILL ALSO MOVE SEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT. 
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONT...RE-REINFORCED BY A
COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...EXTENDED FROM SRN LA WNWWD
ACROSS ERN TX TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER NWRN TX.  A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE TWO MCV'S/SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS.  40-45 KT OF NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVER NRN-ERN TX PER AREA
VWPS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH BOTH
BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.

FARTHER TO THE NW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. DESPITE THESE HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE AIR MASS.  IF A
STORM CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DIURNAL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING A SUPERCELL.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL JET
NOSING INTO CENTRAL ID ATTM WILL SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NE ACROSS MT
TODAY...WHILE PRIMARY BROAD/DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE
PAC NW COAST.  INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THIS
SPEED MAX WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WRN MT.  STORM INTENSITIES AND SEVERE
THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS ONGOING AND
NEW ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  STRONG
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW-MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITH ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH THE SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...FL...
A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
INTERACTIONS OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZES.  THE
WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-2500 J/KG SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..PETERS.. 06/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.