[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171635
SWODY1
SPC AC 171633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
BPT 55 N HOU 30 NE CLL 15 E ACT 20 NNE SEP 30 SSE SPS 45 SSW ADM 35
NNW GGG 25 NNE ESF 15 ESE HEZ 40 E MCB 40 SSE MOB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
MOT 55 SSE Y22 25 SW GLD 45 ESE LIC LIC 55 ENE DGW 35 NW GCC 45 NE
WEY 20 N HLN 25 N CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 S FAR FSD
25 NNE MKC 50 WSW MEM 45 ESE GWO 45 NE MEI 15 E MGM 40 NNE ABY 45
SSE AGS 25 SSW FAY 30 SSW GSB 25 NW ECG 25 W SHD 35 NNE CRW 35 ENE
PKB 25 WSW BFD 20 NW EFK ...CONT... GLS 20 NE AUS 30 NW JCT 25 ESE
P07 ...CONT... 65 S MRF 25 WSW FST 25 E HOB 50 SE CVS 40 NNE TCC 25
NW DEN 35 NE CPR 35 S SHR 25 E COD 35 SE JAC 60 S BYI 50 SSW TWF 35
NE OWY 90 WNW OWY CEC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR E TX AND
LA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS....

...SRN LA/E TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ENHANCED BY AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS
OK...WILL MOVE SEWD FROM SW AR TO THE GULF COAST BY TONIGHT. 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL COLD
POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS...WITH A TENDENCY FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WSWWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND INTO THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL LA. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
EXPECTED S OF THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS EXTREME E TX AND SRN LA BY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 F.  GIVEN THE MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT NWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV...A FEW BOWING
SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHER ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NE TX ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AREA...ASSUMING CONVECTION BECOMES
ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  FARTHER NW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD OCCUR...BUT RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A BROAD/DEEP MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE ORE COAST WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD AS MULTIPLE SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE
LOW.  IN PARTICULAR...A 60-110 KT SPEED MAX IN THE 500-250 MB LAYER
OVER NV/SW ID THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NNEWD TOWARD WRN MT THIS
EVENING.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE EWD FROM CENTRAL INTO ERN MT THIS EVENING.
 ALONG AND E OF THIS LOW/FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S ARE SPREADING NWWD INTO ERN MT.  THIS MOISTENING...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY.

EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOWS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOISTURE MAY ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 06/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.