[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171253
SWODY1
SPC AC 171251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
MOT 55 SSE Y22 20 WSW GLD 20 SSW LIC 25 ENE CYS 55 NE DGW 30 NNW GCC
50 SSE LVM 30 NNW HLN 25 NNW CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
GLS 20 NNW HOU 30 N CLL 10 NNE ACT 20 SW MWL 40 S SPS 45 E SPS 25
NNW PRX 25 N ELD 30 ENE JAN 30 E LUL 30 SE MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 50 E SJT 45
W PVW 30 NW CAO 30 N 4FC 45 NNW DGW 35 E WRL 25 N RIW 35 ESE BPI 40
NNW EVW 15 ESE BYI 45 NNE OWY 95 SE BNO 30 E MHS 25 SSW CEC
...CONT... 65 W RRT 40 S FAR FSD 25 NNE MKC 50 WSW MEM 20 SE GWO 50
E LUL 40 N CEW 25 E ABY 45 SSW AGS 45 SSE CLT 30 W GSB 50 NNE RDU 20
SSE LYH 15 NNW CRW 30 E ZZV 30 N IPT 15 ENE EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/UPPER TX COAST...

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/UPPER TX COAST...
MCS /SMALL BOW ECHO REMAINS INTACT MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR
AT 13Z.  SYSTEM MAY STRENGTHEN SOME AND TURN A BIT MORE SELY THROUGH
THE MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS/DESTABILIZES INTO THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY.  SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED BOW ECHO WITH
ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD/DAMAGING IF SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS/S. 
IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER OK WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY.  A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL TROUGH /EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM OUN AND SHV/ WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND INCREASE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TODAY. 
THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS CAP WEAKENS AND ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST
OVER THE REGION...SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES SHOULD ORGANIZE
ONCE STORMS DEVELOP AND SHIFT SEVERE THREAT SSEWD THROUGH THE
EVENING.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING NORTHEAST
AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AROUND THIS CIRCULATION. 
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SPREADING MID LEVEL JET EWD TODAY ACROSS
MORE OF MT AND ARCING MODERATE WSWLY H5 WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/WRN MT NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH ATTENDANT
SEVERE THREAT INCREASING AS AFTERNOON HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION. 
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND NEAR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. SEVERE
THREATS WILL INCLUDE POSSIBLE TORNADOES GIVEN THE ENHANCED
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOW CENTER...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.  STRONG SLY LLJ MAY SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT AFTER DARK
INTO ERN MT AND WRN ND.

FARTHER EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...STRONG MIXING WILL OCCUR AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE HOT.  THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
FOR STORM INITIATION/SUSTENANCE OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITHIN WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...MODELS MAY BE OVER-DRYING THE
SURFACE...AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED...HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE INTO THE
EARLY TO MID EVENING.  NRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINK WITH ANY
MCS EVOLVING OVER CENTRAL/NERN MT LATER THIS EVENING.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 06/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.