[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170549
SWODY1
SPC AC 170547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
MOT 55 SSE Y22 50 SSW PHP 45 WSW MHN 20 W IML 15 ENE AKO 40 SE CYS
25 ENE CYS 55 NE DGW 30 NNW GCC 40 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 30 NNW HLN 25
NNW CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
GLS 20 NNW HOU 30 N CLL 10 NNE ACT 20 SW MWL 40 S SPS 45 E SPS 25
NNW PRX 30 SSE PGO 40 NNW HOT 30 NW LIT 35 E LIT 35 SSW GLH 30 NE
MCB 10 ESE GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 55 WSW AXN
30 SSE FSD 15 NNE FNB 25 NE UNO 45 NNE MEI 35 SSW SEM 10 NW TOI 10
ESE LGC 25 W AHN 35 N CAE 25 SSW SOP 35 NNW RWI 35 ESE CHO 50 E MGW
10 WNW DUJ 35 ENE ART 25 ENE PBG ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 30 NE AUS 65
NNE BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 WNW DGW 60 NNW CPR 25 SW EVW 45 E
U31 50 E LOL 70 SSE BNO 45 WSW BNO 60 NE MFR 20 S CEC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN AND ERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
U.S. FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE WRN AND ERN STATES. HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEWD
INTO THE PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SPEED MAX NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE NWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES
AND MT TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT.


..MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS...

SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MT TODAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD EJECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH ERN MT AND INTO SRN CANADA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH
THE STATE REACHING ERN MT BY EARLY EVENING AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ACCELERATION OF SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE 
INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AS
SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG
FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FARTHER SWD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND WRN SD AND SPREAD
NEWD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.


...SRN PLAINS...

ONGOING MCS OVER CNTRL OK MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE FROM ERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...AND STORMS MAY
REINTENSIFY ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SPREAD SEWD.
NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ABOVE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FARTHER W AND NW THROUGH NWRN TX...OK AND KS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
PERSIST FROM THURSDAYS STORMS...AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUS DAYS. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE
CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 06/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.