[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170101
SWODY1
SPC AC 170059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
CSM 35 SE EHA 30 WSW GCK 40 NNE GCK 40 WNW HUT 40 WSW CNU 45 E BVO
20 W PGO 25 ENE DUA 30 NW SPS 30 SW CSM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW
MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 10 S OFK 15 SSW FNB 50 SSE OJC 35 WNW LIT 15
SE BTR 30 W 7R4 55 N HOU 35 SSW FTW 15 N ABI 35 SE MAF 40 W INK 15
NW CNM 40 WSW CVS 20 W CAO 20 SSW LHX 30 S DEN 35 SSW DGW 30 N CPR
20 NE RIW 15 W JAC 40 WNW MQM 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 20 S TPL 40
ESE SJT 35 SE FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 35 SE ELP 45 E 4CR 20 SW RTN
15 SW EGE 40 S EVW 15 NNE ENV 80 SSE BNO 20 SSW RDM 40 N ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL 25 NW FSD
20 W SZL 50 N GLH 25 S MEI 10 ESE MAI 20 SE JAX ...CONT... 20 SSW
NEL 25 SSE CXY 20 NW HLG 10 S TOL 20 SW MBS 15 SE APN ...CONT... 50
NNE BML 35 S 3B1 30 SW BHB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN KS THROUGH MUCH OF
OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES...

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...


POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS OK.

THIS AFTERNOON A NW-SE ORIENTED QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A
SURFACE LOW IN SERN CO SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK...EXTREME NERN TX AND
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A THETA-E AXIS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH 
MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG FROM SWRN KS SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK.
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO ARE SPREADING
EWD INTO WRN KS. OTHER STRONGER SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOPED FARTHER
EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SWRN KS. THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUE WITH THESE STORMS NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
HOWEVER...OVERALL STORM MODE SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN MCS
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND THIS EVENING. THE SSWLY
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND INTO SWRN KS. THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LIFT...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF
THE BOUNDARY FROM OK INTO KS. AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO AN
MCS...THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE AND TRACK GENERALLY
SEWD ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT THROUGH OK SUPPORTED BY INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND 30-40 KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SOME
BACKBUILDING ALONG THE WRN FLANKS OF THE MCS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RELATIVE TO THE BOUNDARY.
POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST FROM
NW THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN OK.

...ID AND MT...

ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING NEWD
THROUGH WRN U.S. UPPER LOW AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ID INTO MT. ELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S E OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH 60S OVER ERN MT AND MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND
BOW SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE ESELY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 06/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.