[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 162014
SWODY1
SPC AC 162012

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
CDS 45 E DHT 40 E LAA 30 SSE IML 55 NE HLC 35 NE ICT 20 NE MLC 15
SSW DUA 60 SW SPS 20 W CDS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW
MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 10 S OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 35 WNW LIT 20 NNE
BTR 30 NW 7R4 50 N HOU 10 WSW DAL 20 N ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35
ESE ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 35 SE DGW 35 NNE CPR
20 NE RIW 30 WSW JAC 40 WNW MQM 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL
55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 40 W ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE
GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 55 WNW WMC 30 NE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N
OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 35 S 3B1
30 SW BHB ...CONT... 25 SE EWN 25 WNW ECG 10 E RIC 20 E CRW 25 SW
CMH 45 SSW JXN 55 NNE GRR 15 SE APN ...CONT... 60 NNW DVL 15 NE JMS
20 W SZL 30 NNE GWO 20 SE LUL 35 SW ABY 25 SSE SAV.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL
KS...CENTRAL AND WRN OK INCLUDING THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...AND NWRN TX
INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND
MT...

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
WV IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...1) OVER SERN
CO/NRN NM AND 2) OVER NRN CO ATTM...WITH THESE TROUGHS EXPECTED
TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AT
THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM LA NWWD ACROSS ERN TX TO OK
AND FAR WRN KS.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING AND ONGOING STORM
ACTIVITY FROM OK TO LA HAVE REINFORCED THE SURFACE FRONT IN THESE
LOCATIONS.  A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS SRN NEB
MAY BECOME A SECOND FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND SWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THE LACK OF CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND CAPPING
PER 18Z SOUNDINGS ARE LIKELY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ATTM.
 VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN OK TO AROUND LBL. 
THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF CO MID LEVEL
TROUGHS ARE WEAKENING THE CAP. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...MLCAPE UP TO
2500 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
INITIAL THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS'S THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...WITH
PRIMARY THREAT BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS.

...MT...
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING DOWNSTREAM DIFFLUENT
FLOW ACROSS MT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES IN ID/SWRN MT/NWRN WY.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA SWWD ACROSS MT.  TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS WRN MT.  THIS MAY
INHIBIT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK FROM ID INTO WRN MT.  FURTHER
EAST...VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF NERN MT WHERE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATED STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION.  A FEW
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG/N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
IN NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND SHOULD POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.

GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED INITIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MT THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EWD. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT/NWRN WY AND SPREAD EWD ONTO THE
PLAINS OF CENTRAL MT...WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE ENABLING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND
POSSIBLE SHORT LINES DURING THE EVENING INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL EWD.

...ERN TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA AHEAD OF TWO MCV'S
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS AREA.  VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BUT WEAK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION AND CELL DURATION.

...COASTAL REGIONS NERN U.S...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS ERN PA INTO SERN NY WITH A SECOND AREA OVER SWRN PA.  DESPITE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXTENDING FROM VA TO SERN NY... THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 06/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.