[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161559
SWODY1
SPC AC 161557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
CDS 45 E DHT 40 E LAA 30 SSE IML 55 NE HLC 35 NE ICT 20 NE MLC 15
SSW DUA 60 SW SPS 20 W CDS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW
MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 30 WNW OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 45 NNE HOT 30 E
ESF 40 NW LFT 25 WNW LFK DAL 25 NW ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35 ESE
ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 25 ESE DGW 30 WSW GCC 40
NNE COD 25 SW DLN 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL
55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 40 W ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE
GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 55 WNW WMC 30 NE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N
OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL 15 NE JMS
20 W SZL 30 NNE GWO 20 SE LUL 35 SW ABY 25 SSE SAV ...CONT... 25 SE
EWN 25 WNW ECG 10 E RIC 20 E CRW 25 SW CMH 45 SSW JXN 55 NNE GRR 10
NE OSC ...CONT... 50 NNE BML 35 S 3B1 30 SW BHB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF WESTERN  AND
CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INCLUDING
THE PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND
MONTANA...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LOW REMAIN OFF PAC NW COAST WHILE UPPER LOW OVER SERN
ONTARIO DROPS SWD INTO WRN NY BY TONIGHT.  S/WV TROUGHS ROTATING
THRU BOTH SYSTEMS WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTING
ONE ROTATING NEWD ACROSS WA/OR/WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON.  IN THE NE ONE
IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANOTHER ONE
ROTATING EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY.

NWLY FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS E OF
THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES.

AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED MUCH OF
CENTRAL PLAINS SWD TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW NOW
ACROSS NRN MS INTO NRN TX.  STRONG HEATING AND UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

UPSLOPE E OF DIVIDE IN MT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS IMPULSE
APPROACHES FROM THE PAC NW...PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
HAVE CONTINUED THE MDT RISK AREA ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF
AFTERNOON FOR THE STRONG HEATING TO REDEVELOP THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS NEEDED FOR SEVERE STORMS. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY SWRN NE/NWRN KS
IN UPSLOPE REGIME.  INITIALLY HIGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  DURING
EVENING ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS'S WILL EVOLVE AND 
ORGANIZE INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THEY MOVE S/SE INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK EARLY TONIGHT.

...MT...
RATHER MOIST SWLY FLOW ACROSS WRN HALF OF MT AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH 
COUPLED WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE IN ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF WRN HALF OF MT.  VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES E OF DIVIDE WITH 50KT OR GREATER SFC-6KM SHEAR SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WITH MINIMAL CURRENT CLOUD COVER...STRONG
HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE MUCH OF STATE TODAY.  INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MOUNTAINS OF WRN MT WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH MLCAPES UPWARDS OF 1500
J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR...LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOP.  STORMS WILL
EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SHORT LINES DURING THE EVENING
INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EWD ACROSS MT PLAINS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
MDT/STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP ALONG WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO FOCUS REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LA INTO NERN TX. 
THESE STORMS WOULD THEN PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD GULF COAST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL UNTIL THIS
EVENING.

...COASTAL REGIONS NERN U.S...
LAPSE RATES HAVE INCREASED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY ACROSS THIS AREA
WITH MID LEVEL COOLING.  WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSE FROM OH VALLEY AND
40-50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING AFTERNOON.  BEST REGION WOULD BE ERN PA ACROSS NJ WHERE
HEATING WILL ALLOW MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO 1000 J/KG. PRIMARY THREAT
IS MARGINAL HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.  THREAT IS LIMITED
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.