[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161255
SWODY1
SPC AC 161253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
CDS 30 E DHT 40 E LAA 40 ENE GLD 30 N RSL 35 NE ICT 20 NE MLC 15 SSW
DUA 60 SW SPS 20 W CDS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW
MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 30 WNW OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 45 NNE HOT 30 SW
MLU 25 WNW POE 35 W LFK DAL 25 NW ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW INK 35 ESE
ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 25 ESE DGW 30 WSW GCC 40
NNE COD 25 SW DLN 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ELP 35 NNE SAF
50 NNE GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 45 N BAM 40 ENE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E
EKA 15 N OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL
55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 15 WNW
EPM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE RWI 45 WSW UNI 45
SSW JXN 55 NNE GRR 10 NE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE DVL 15 NE JMS
20 W SZL 30 NNE GWO 20 SE LUL 35 SW ABY 20 NNE SSI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS...OK AND THE
NRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS
S AND SE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN AMPLIFIED SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY STRONG NE PACIFIC CLOSED LOW
SHOULD APPROACH THE ORE CST BY 12Z FRIDAY AS ONTARIO UPR LOW SETTLES
SE TO LK ONTARIO.  FARTHER S...SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST FROM THE
SRN GRT BASIN ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS INTO THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY. 
LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS BAND OF FLOW...NOW OVER CNTRL KS/NW OK...SHOULD
REACH THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY.  A SECOND DISTURBANCE IN THE JET
APPEARS TO NEARING THE 4 CORNERS REGION ATTM.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REACH ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ESE TO THE LWR MS VLY EARLY
FRIDAY.

AT LWR LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE...REINFORCED IN PART BY MCS
OUTFLOW...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE NRN AND CNTRL HI
PLNS SE INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.  IN THE NW...A N/S COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO FAR WRN MT THIS
EVENING.

...CNTRL HI PLNS TO SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY...
OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LEFT A BUBBLE HIGH THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM SE OK
NWWD INTO WRN KS.  S OF THE BUBBLE...THERE EXISTS A POOL OF VERY
MOIST AIR ACROSS N TX. EXPECT THAT LLJ WILL BACK TO A MORE SLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS
CONTINUES SE INTO THE LWR MS VLY.  WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS
WRN OK/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGION AND SW KS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY.  SOME OF THESE MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN BUBBLE HIGH...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING
DIURNAL UPSLOPE /SELY/ COMPONENT TO LOW LVL FLOW...SUGGEST THAT THE
ELEVATED STORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER IN THE DAY.  GIVEN
RICH MOISTURE INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... MLCAPE
AVAILABLE TO THE STORMS MAY EXCEED 3500 J/KG.  AT THE SAME
TIME...35-40 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM JET.  AS A RESULT...SETUP APPEARS 
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH
WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

THE SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO LINEAR MCSS THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES SEWD AND AUGMENTS NOCTURNAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ.  THE MCSS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY SE TOWARD
ERN OK/AR/NE TX AND LA...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
HIGH WIND AND HAIL INTO THE EARLY FRIDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MCS NOW OVER
SE OK MAY REJUVENATE OVER THE ARKLATEX AS SURFACE DESTABILIZES
REGION LATER TODAY.  FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORMS MAY YIELD WIND/HAIL
SEWD INTO CNTRL LA.

FARTHER N...A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY/NRN CO AND PERHAPS WRN
SD...WHERE LEE TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW
LEVEL FLOW.  25 KT MID LEVEL WLY JET IN THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN
WEAKER SHEAR RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S.  BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR
WILL STILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG.

...NRN HI PLNS/FAR NRN RCKYS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN SIERRA SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE
DAY AND ENHANCE LEE TROUGHING/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR
NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS OF WRN MT.  THIS WILL FOSTER LOW LVL E/SELY
FLOW OVER THE STATE AND MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
OCCUR OVER REGION AS AREA WILL BE E OF MID/UPR LVL CLOUD BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT.  AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WRN PART
OF THE STATE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NRN ID TO NEAR 2000 J/KG IN
THE EAST.

HEATING...OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND INCREASING DEEP ASCENT DOWNSTREAM
FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT AND NRN ID.  THE STORMS SHOULD
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE/DEVELOP NNE INTO THE PLAINS. WITH MID LEVEL SSWLY
FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 40 KTS...SETUP LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS
CONTAINING BOWING SEGMENTS THAT EXTEND A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
INTO LATE EVENING.


...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
RECENT WV SATELLITE DATA SUPPORT GFS SOLUTION DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OH/WRN PA LATER TODAY.  THIS FEATURE
SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CST TONIGHT.

COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM
APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE LIKELY WILL LEAD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NY/PA LATER TODAY.  OTHER STORMS MAY FORM
ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN MD/DE/NJ.  MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED
FOR TIME OF YEAR AND REGION /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S/...BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN  40-50 KT MID
LVL WSW FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF ONTARIO UPR LOW. SETUP MAY FOSTER
DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING  WIND AND/OR
HAIL.  GRADUAL RETREAT OF YESTERDAY'S BACK DOOR FRONT
WILL ALLOW STRONGER ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE NYC AREA AND PERHAPS SW
NEW ENG.


...ERN LWR MI TO NRN OH...
WELL-DEFINED VORT CENTER IN WV IMAGERY NOW N OF SSM SHOULD ROTATE S
AND THEN SE ACROSS LWR MI LATER TODAY. SURFACE HEATING IN DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN LOW
FREEZING LVLS...SOME OF THE CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.  BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY SUB-SEVERE.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 06/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.