[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160043
SWODY1
SPC AC 160041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW
MOT 10 W DIK 50 NE RAP 30 NNW VTN 30 NNW GRI 20 SSE BIE 40 SSE TOP
35 ENE TUL 25 W MLC SPS 10 ENE CDS 30 ENE AMA 25 NE EHA 45 ESE AKO
35 SSW BFF 30 NNE GCC 30 NW SHR 25 SE BIL 35 NNE BIL 65 SSW GGW 10
NE GGW 60 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 20 NW ACT
40 W BWD 50 SSW SJT 10 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 SSW DMN 15 SSW ONM 40
NNW CEZ 35 NNW BCE 45 WNW ELY 25 NNW EKO 30 E SUN 40 NNW HLN 25 N
HVR ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 40 SW BIS 35 NW PIR 20 ESE OFK 30 E MKC 25
W HRO 35 SSE FSM 45 NW TXK 50 SE PRX 15 E GGG 30 S SHV 30 ENE HEZ 20
WSW SEM 65 E MCN 35 N CRE 15 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 W CAR 40 ESE AUG
...CONT... 20 SSW JFK 15 NNW HGR 35 NNE PKB 40 NE DAY 15 NW FDY 30
ENE TOL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM CONTINUE
SPREADING EWD...PRIMARILY FROM NERN NM THROUGH WRN KS. A SMALL
CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CNTRL KS. AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY PERSISTS FROM WRN OK
NWD THROUGH CNTRL KS WITH 3000 J/KG MLCAPE. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXISTS FARTHER NWD THROUGH WRN NEB. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SELY N OF
THE E-W KS BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS NWD INTO NEB. THE SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BENEATH THE MODEST 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO 35
TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS AND
POSSIBLY SWD INTO PARTS OF OK. THE INTENSIFYING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INTERACT WITH THE PRE-EXISTING NW-SE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...ENHANCING LIFT AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY
OVER KS. ACTIVITY OVER WRN KS HAS EVOLVED INTO AN MCS AND WILL MERGE
WITH DOWNSTREAM SUPERCELLS. AN MCS WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH KS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THE MAIN THREATS. WEAK CAP INDICATED ON THE 00Z OKC...AMA AND DDC
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS STORMS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE MAY CONTINUE TO
FORWARD PROPAGATE INTO WRN OK NEXT FEW HOURS.


...NRN PLAINS...


STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE SPREADING EWD
THROUGH WY AND SE MT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A NW-SE
ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM SERN MT INTO NE WY. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED
THAN FARTHER S. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXISTS FROM THE WRN
DAKOTAS THROUGH ERN MT...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW VEERING TO WLY 20 KT AT 6 KM...IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SOME INCREASE IN
STORM INTENSITY MIGHT OCCUR AS STORMS APPROACH THE THETA-E AXIS FROM
ERN MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. 00Z RAPID
CITY RAOB ALSO SHOWS STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED PARCELS...WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER WITH LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING. THE STRONG CAP SUGGESTS STORMS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME MAINTAINING THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE HIGHER
THETA-E ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...SO THE THREAT IN THIS
AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL.

..DIAL.. 06/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.