[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160557
SWODY1
SPC AC 160556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW
MOT 10 W BIS 25 E PIR 30 WNW OFK 35 SW FNB 55 N JLN 45 NNE HOT 30 SW
MLU 25 WNW POE 35 W LFK DAL 25 NW MWL 25 NW ABI 30 SSE BGS 20 NNW
INK 35 ESE ROW 55 N ROW 45 NNW TCC 35 ENE TAD 30 S DEN 25 ESE DGW 30
WSW GCC 40 NNE COD 25 SW DLN 45 SE S80 25 NNE PUW 40 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 SSW CLL
55 E FST 25 SSW FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 35 WNW ELP 35 NNE SAF 50 NNE
GJT 45 W VEL 40 SW ENV 45 N BAM 40 ENE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 E EKA 15 N
OTH ...CONT... 95 NNE DVL 15 NE JMS 40 NNE SUX 20 SSW SZL 20 WNW UOX
25 ENE MEI 10 N DHN SAV 20 ESE FAY 50 S RIC 45 SW DCA 20 NNE EKN 25
SE MFD FDY ARB 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 15 WNW EPM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY WITH AN UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE NWRN STATES...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN U.S.. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NERN U.S. UPPER LOW ACCOMPANIED BY A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SURGES. STRONGEST FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH VORT MAX NOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS IT ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE NERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON. A NW-SE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...

MCS NOW MOVING THROUGH OK SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION AND MODEST SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MIGHT
BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS INTO ERN TX AND
THE LOWER MS VALLEY PART OF THE DAY...WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF MCS
OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. SURFACE HEATING... DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO
3500 J/KG FROM OK AND NRN TX NWWD THROUGH KS AND NEB. STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM THROUGH CO AND WY AND
INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM ERN CO THROUGH WY AND WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. THE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO WLY 20-30 KT AT 6 KM WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL MAIN THREAT
WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE...BEFORE STORMS EVOLVE INTO AN
MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD
THROUGH PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY
THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET.


...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...

HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
EWD MOVING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS SHOULD ENHANCE THE
LOW LEVEL ELY COMPONENT THROUGH MT AND HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF MT WITH CAPE GENERALLY AOB 800 J/KG FARTHER SW
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT AND ID. OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADING NEWD. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS DURING THE DAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
THE MAIN THREATS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
EVENING.

...NERN U.S....

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE NERN U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. WSWLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
SUGGEST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL EXIST IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY VERTICAL
SHEAR FROM 30 TO 35 KT MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 06/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.