[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 152031
SWODY1
SPC AC 152029

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW
MOT 10 W DIK 40 NNE RAP 40 NW VTN GRI 30 ENE MHK 20 NW JLN 35 NE MKO
35 SW MKO 25 NNE ADM 50 SSW SPS 60 NNW ABI 35 ESE TCC 40 SW RTN 50
WSW PUB 30 E DGW 40 S GCC 25 SE SHR 25 N COD 45 SSE LVM 25 SSE LVM
25 SW 3HT 10 SW LWT 30 WSW GGW 70 N GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR 10 ESE PSM
...CONT... 15 ESE NEL 35 SW AOO 20 ESE ZZV 40 WSW MFD 20 SW ARB 70
SE OSC ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 25 NE BIS 35 NE PIR 35 SSW MHE 45 N FNB
15 SSE MKC 15 NNE UMN 20 SE FYV 45 NW TXK 50 SE PRX 15 E GGG 30 S
SHV 30 ENE HEZ 30 SSW SEM 20 SE MCN 30 N CHS 40 N HSE ...CONT... 20
SE DUG 45 ESE SOW 55 SW CEZ 40 NW U17 35 NW U24 20 NNE TWF 35 WNW
27U 45 NE CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS KS/OK/NWRN TX...

...HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KS/OK/NWRN TX...
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
NM/CO THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADS
EAST. GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS EAST OF THIS CONVECTION IN A
CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL TX NNWWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NEB.
LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION IS
ALMOST ELIMINATED ACROSS KS/WRN OK AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE 90S
F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE APPROACHING
3000 J/KG. STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THIS
AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO
FORM FROM DEEPENING CU FIELDS NOW DEVELOPING FROM WRN OK INTO WRN
KS.

LATEST WIND PROFILES WERE SHOWING 30-35KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION AND EXPECT NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY FROM THESE STORMS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
AND MODEST SHEAR. TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR RESIDUAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SITUATED SOUTH TO NORTH
FROM NWRN OK INTO SCNTRL KS. HOWEVER... OVERALL TORNADO THREAT MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY RELATIVELY HIGH LFC AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AS WELL AS LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS OVER CNTRL OK WAS NOW MOVING SWWD
TOWARD THE RED RIVER AND NWRN TX. WHILE AIR MASS WAS STRONGLY CAPPED
AHEAD OF THIS OUTFLOW...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND PERSISTENT
CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW STORMS TO FORM EXPLOSIVELY IN VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. HIGH WIND AND A COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL EVENTS COULD OCCUR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF IT CAN FORM. LACK OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE.

EVENTUALLY...STORMS OVER KS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY EWD/ESEWD ON THE EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING
INVERSION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HAIL AND WIND
THREAT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN KS INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

...HIGH PLAINS NEB NWWD TO MT AND TH WRN DAKOTAS...
INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS NWWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS
FROM SERN WY INTO MT. HOWEVER....MARGINALLY MOIST UPSLOPE SELY FLOW
BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE
DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF WY AND SCNTRL MT. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR
AS THESE TSTM CLUSTERS PERSIST EWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
INFLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

..CARBIN.. 06/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.