[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150540
SWODY1
SPC AC 150538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
PBG 10 S MPV 10 SW EEN 25 NNE BDR 35 NW ILG 40 W CXY 20 ESE DUJ 20 E
JHW 30 NNE BUF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
ISN 35 SSE SDY 35 S REJ 40 NNW MHN EAR 30 ENE MHK 20 NW JLN 40 WNW
FYV 20 WSW MKO 45 ESE OKC 25 SW CSM 45 SE AMA 20 E TCC 45 N LVS 55
NNE ALS FCL 45 NNE CPR 50 NW SHR 25 NW WEY 25 SW DLN 50 N 27U 25 SSW
GTF 40 NE LWT 30 WSW GGW 70 N GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 3B1 20 WSW BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW TUS 30 WNW SOW
35 WNW GUP 25 N 4BL 25 SSW U28 40 ENE MLF 45 NE ELY 40 NNW ENV 40
NNE OWY 75 E 4LW 50 NNW SVE 20 NNW MHS 70 NE MFR 45 S PDT 45 ENE S80
35 NNE CTB ...CONT... 55 NE MOT 50 ENE BIS 20 NNE PIR 40 ENE ANW 45
N FNB 25 SE OJC 20 NNW UMN 35 WSW FSM 15 E ADM 40 N FTW 30 N ACT 20
NE LFK 35 ESE MEI 55 E MCN 30 NNE FLO 30 E RIC 45 NNE CHO 30 NNE BKW
25 WSW CMH 10 NNW FDY 20 SE DTW ...CONT... 50 NW 3B1 20 WSW BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM MT
SWD TO NM...AND EWD INTO PARTS OF KS / OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL LOW / TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN
CANADA / THE GREAT LAKES REGION / THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...WHILE
SECOND TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST.  IN BETWEEN...RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. 
ON THE SMALLER SCALE...SEVERAL FEATURES SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS.  

AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE E COAST STATES.  FURTHER W...THIS BOUNDARY --
INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- SHOULD DRIFT NWD AND WEAKEN
WITH TIME.

MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN
HIGH PLAINS REGION...AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
WHILE WLY COMPONENT ALOFT ADVECTS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER / STEEP LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DEVELOPING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TX NWD INTO ERN MT.

WITHIN THIS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF
LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON FROM NRN NM NWD INTO MT.  WLY WINDS ALOFT ABOVE SELY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR DEVELOPING STORMS TO
ORGANIZE / BECOME SEVERE.  THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH GREATEST
THREAT MAY INITIALLY EXIST ACROSS MT NEAR EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT /
BENEATH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW.  WITH TIME HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION -- PARTICULARLY
INTO THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT
MCS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS ERN CO / WRN KS...AND THEN MOVE SEWD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF KS / OK.  ALONG WITH
HAIL POTENTIAL...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO EVOLVE WITH
THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

...THE NORTHEAST...
LIMITED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPPER
LOW / INVOF FRONT...WHILE SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE EWD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND ERN CANADA UPPER
LOW.  DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...FAVORABLY-STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST.  SMALL BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...AND GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR...LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE -- PERHAPS MOST LIKELY INVOF THE HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS AIRMASS
DIURNALLY COOLS.

...SERN ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES...
THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK...MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.  FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD STORM
DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS EXTENDING AS FAR WWD AS ERN TX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO
OVERALL LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM
CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...BEFORE
STORMS BEGIN DECREASING DURING THE EVENING.

..GOSS.. 06/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.