[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151245
SWODY1
SPC AC 151243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
BML 35 W EEN 30 NNE EWR 20 N CXY 20 NNW PSB 50 SE BUF 40 NNE ROC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
ISN 35 SSE SDY 35 S REJ 40 NNW MHN EAR 30 ENE MHK 20 NW JLN 40 WNW
FYV 20 WSW MKO 45 ESE OKC 25 SW CSM 45 SE AMA 20 E TCC 45 N LVS 55
NNE ALS FCL 45 NNE CPR 50 NW SHR 25 NW WEY 25 SW DLN 50 N 27U 25 SSW
GTF 40 NE LWT 30 WSW GGW 70 N GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 3B1 20 WSW BHB
...CONT... 15 NNE NEL 25 SE CXY 45 ESE MGW 20 E UNI 30 NE DAY 25 NW
TOL 55 NNE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DUG 45 ESE SOW
35 WNW GUP 25 N 4BL 25 SSW U28 25 SE MLF 10 SSE ELY 55 SSE TWF 55
WSW SUN 75 E 4LW 50 NNW SVE 20 NNW MHS 70 NE MFR 45 S PDT 45 ENE S80
35 NNE CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MOT 50 ENE BIS
20 NNE PIR 40 ENE ANW 45 N FNB 20 ESE MKC 20 NNW SGF 45 E FSM 40 NNW
TXK 10 NNE FTW 45 SW ABI 40 SSW SJT 15 S JCT 65 NNE CLL 45 N POE MEI
25 NNW MCN 10 ESE RDU 20 E ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS
S/E INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NY AND PA...

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN TROUGHS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND OVER ONTARIO/
QUEBEC THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM IN THE PLAINS.  SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WHICH CROSSED THE OH VLY YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE NE INTO
QUEBEC CANADA AND WEAKEN...WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SRN MI
SWEEPS E INTO PA/NY.  IN THE WEST...IMPULSE NOW OVER WA/ORE SHOULD
MOVE NE INTO ALBERTA.  FARTHER S...A WEAKER  DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT
ATTM IN WV IMAGERY OVER AZ/UT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE E ACROSS
THE CNTRL RCKYS LATER TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE E/SE INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE HI
PLAINS AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE LWR GRT LKS...AND
BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY HOLDS MORE OR LESS STATIONARY IN ERN NY.

...NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS TO CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED LEE TROUGHING.  MOISTURE WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER LIMITED OVER THE NORTH...BUT WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER
NE NM/THE TX-OK PANHANDLE REGION AND ERN CO AS OLD FRONTAL SURGE
WHICH STALLED IN TX YESTERDAY REDEVELOPS NWD.

COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW...INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY PRESENT SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM MT SWD
INTO NRN NM.  A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM E OF THE MOUNTAINS IN MT
/ALONG TRAILING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW IN
ALBERTA/...AND INVOF WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS IN NE NM
AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION.

PROXIMITY OF MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS /40+ KT WSWLY 500 MB FLOW/ WILL
CREATE AMPLE SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN MT.  SOMEWHAT WEAKER
/35 KT/ BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IN WY/CO/NM.  BOTH REGIONS LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE
WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. OVERALL COMBINATION OF
UPLIFT/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGH WIND.

GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...PRESENCE OF NWD-MOVING
FRONTAL ZONE AND SRN BRANCH UPR DISTURBANCE...THE CONVECTION IN CO
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE E/SE INTO
KS/OK EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND.

...NRN/ERN NY AND NRN/ERN PA AND NRN NJ...
TSTMS WILL FORM AS SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES AREA OF MODERATELY
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE LWR GRT LKS REGION.  MI UPR VORT WILL
ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED 50+ KT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
SHEAR. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST
/AROUND 7 C PER KM/...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS/CLUSTERS OF
DIURNAL STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WIND.  A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN NRN/ERN NY.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
CONTINUE IN AN ELEVATED FASHION E/NEWD INTO WRN/NWRN NEW ENG...WITH
A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SEVERE.

...WRN GULF CST TO SERN U.S...
AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING INVOF OLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM SE TX EWD INTO CAROLINAS.  DEEP
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE VERY WEAK... ALTHOUGH WV IMAGERY
DOES DEPICT A WEAK IMPULSE OVER LA/MS.

GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...A FEW OF THE
STORMS LIKELY WILL YIELD HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.  STRIATED
NATURE OF MID LVL MOISTURE AXIS OVERLYING REGION /WV IMAGERY/
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO BANDS.  BUT WEAK SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE SUSTAINED/STRONGLY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 06/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.