[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150039
SWODY1
SPC AC 150037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35
SE UCA 10 S ABE 40 WSW RIC 20 ENE HSS CHA 30 N HSV 35 NNE MSL 25 NNE
CSV 15 NNE 5I3 35 WNW EKN 25 NE MGW 15 S FKL 30 W ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW DMN 70 NE SAD
25 SW 4SL 30 ESE RTN 20 NNW DHT 40 NW BGS 35 W ACT 30 ENE SHV 20 E
UOX 45 SE BWG 40 NE SDF 25 E MIE 30 N BMI 30 W DBQ 20 NNE RST 70 SSW
DLH 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 10 E LVM 45 WNW VEL 20 NNW 4BL
20 NW GCN 55 SSE NFL 80 NE SVE 35 NE 4LW 55 N BNO 15 N ALW 50 SW GEG
45 NNE EPH 35 N 4OM ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP LRD ...CONT... 45 N BML 20
ENE PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION...
GENERAL / SLOW WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN NY / WRN PA / WV SWWD INTO ERN TN --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THIS REGION.  

STRONGER STORMS ATTM PERSIST FROM SRN WV SWWD...WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED.  THOUGH SLOW WEAKENING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE AREAWIDE...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL ACROSS THIS AREA -- AND
TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE FURTHER N ACROSS WRN PA / WRN NY -- FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THOUGH CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
AREAS W OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST...SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS /
MARGINAL HAIL MAY EXTEND EWD INTO PARTS OF NRN AND WRN VA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

MEANWHILE...FRONT REMAINS WELL W OF CONVECTION OVER NRN PARTS OF
THIS REGION...WITH BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN OH.  THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY / BEHIND ONGOING
CONVECTIVE LINE...DEVELOPMENT REMAINS WEAK.  THOUGH A SEVERE THREAT
WOULD EXIST WITH ANY STORM WHICH COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS
AREA...CHANCES FOR ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS STABILIZES.


...PARTS OF TX / SERN NM...
MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
PERSISTS INVOF COLD FRONT ACROSS TX.  THOUGH SCATTERED STRONG /
LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SERN TX WWD INTO W TX /
SERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DIURNALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS
EVENING.

STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS SERN NM / THE TRANSPECOS REGION
OF W TX WHERE SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST...SUPPLYING
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH OVERALL LACK
OF SHEAR SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT...A FEW HAIL / WIND
EVENTS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...WRN MT / SERN ID...
A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN MT ALONG TAIL END OF
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NEWD INTO SERN BRITISH COLUMBIA / SRN
ALBERTA.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE /
ROTATING STORMS...INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS MT. 
THIS COMBINED WITH FURTHER STABILIZATION OF AIRMASS AFTER SUNSET
SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED.

AN ISOLATED WIND / HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN.

..GOSS.. 06/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.