[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 142003
SWODY1
SPC AC 142001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
BUF 15 N BFD 15 N LBE 35 NE CRW 20 NNW JKL 60 E BWG 40 SSE SDF 40
SSW LUK 15 NNE LUK 35 E MIE 45 SSE AZO 25 ENE AZO 15 SSW MBS 55 SE
OSC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
MSS 35 SE UCA 10 S ABE 10 ENE SSU 20 ENE HSS 10 WSW TCL 15 SSE GLH
30 SW MEM 35 ESE PAH 20 SE BMG 35 NE LAF 20 S OSH 25 WSW MQT 65 NNW
ANJ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW
GDP CNM HOB 30 SSE MAF 15 NE SJT 15 SSW JCT 45 ENE DRT DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR BHB
...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 10 E LVM 30 NE MLD 30 S ENV 20 S U31 LOL 80 NE
SVE 35 NE 4LW 55 N BNO 15 N ALW 50 SW GEG 45 NNE EPH 15 WNW 4OM 45
NW 4OM 70 E BLI 60 NE SEA 25 ESE SEA 10 WNW SEA 30 NE CLM 35 WNW BLI
...CONT... 15 SW DUG 20 NNE SAD 25 SW 4SL 30 ESE RTN 20 NNW DHT 50
NNE CDS 10 ESE ADM 15 WNW LIT 25 NW DYR 40 NNE PAH 50 NNW EVV 15 NNE
MTO 20 E PIA 30 W DBQ 20 NNE RST 70 SSW DLH 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 30
ENE CRP LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF LOWER
MICHIGAN...MUCH OF OHIO....AND SMALL PARTS OF WRN NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA/WEST VIRGINIA AND KENTUCKY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE TN VLY TO IND...ERN WI... THE U.P. OF MI...NY/PA/WV/WRN
MD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX...

...GREAT LAKES/UPR OH VLY...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE CYCLONE
SPINNING ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP LAYER
FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN THE ERN/SERN FLANK OF THE VORTEX EXTENDS FROM MI
SWD TO NEAR THE OH/IND BORDER THEN SWWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER TO
KY/TN. LARGE SCALE DPVA AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT WHERE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A 50-60KT MID
LEVEL WIND MAX COINCIDENT WITH THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID/UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
PERSISTENT STORM UPDRAFTS...AS WELL AS RELATIVELY FAST MOVING
STORMS.

A COMBINATION OF CELLULAR AND LINEAR CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM LWR MI TO NRN KY. AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE REGION SHOWED STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES
AND DCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH FAST
CELL MOTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...AS
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AHEAD OF
ONGOING STORMS...AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW AND
LAKE BREEZES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY BE ENHANCED OVER SERN LWR MI AND ERN OH. AS STORM COVERAGE
INCREASES BEYOND LATE AFTERNOON...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MORE
LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR...AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
SPREAD EAST INTO PARTS OF WV/WRN PA AND WRN NY BY EVENING.

...TN VLY WSWWD TO ERN TX...
THERMAL GRADIENT DEFINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE
ACROSS THIS REGION BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IS
MAXIMIZED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GENERALLY MARGINAL SHEAR
VALUES AND WEAK TO NEUTRAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WOULD
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NONETHELESS...A FEW HAIL AND/OR WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR.

...WEST TX...
AXIS OF EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL PRIMARILY
MULTICELLULAR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY ALONG SWWD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM INK TO JCT. ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. SEE SPC MCD NUMBER 1347 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THIS
AREA.

...NRN ROCKIES...
STRONGER DESTABILIZATION HAS SO FAR BEEN INHIBITED BY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE
BITTERROOTS/CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HOWEVER...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AS WELL AS ACROSS SERN ID...SHOULD SPUR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED AND FAST-MOVING CELLS.
A FEW HAIL REPORTS...OR A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO...MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING FROM ERN/SERN ID INTO WRN/CNTRL MT.

..CARBIN.. 06/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.