[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141618
SWODY1
SPC AC 141616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
ROC 30 WSW IPT 35 SW AOO 20 NNW CRW 30 ESE LUK 30 E MIE 30 SW JXN 45
SSE OSC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
ART 20 SE UCA 10 S ABE 10 ENE SSU 20 ENE HSS 25 WSW TCL 15 SSE GLH
25 W MEM 35 ESE PAH 35 SSE BMG 45 SW SBN 35 S OSH 25 SE MQT 25 WNW
ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GGW 45 SE LWT
40 WNW JAC 40 NNE EKO RNO 40 S SVE 50 WNW SVE 40 NNW RBL 45 WNW MHS
40 WSW RDM 65 E BLI ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 20 NNE SAD 15 N ONM 15 W
TAD 25 NW LBL 30 WNW FSI 10 ESE ADM 15 WNW LIT 25 N DYR 35 NE PAH 50
NNW EVV 15 NNE MTO 30 NE SPI 35 SE OTM 30 NE DSM 10 E STC 15 NE ELO
...CONT... 30 ENE CRP LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR BHB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...
LOW...SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER NRN WI THIS AM WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
GREAT LAKES MOVING INTO SERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED.  S/WV TROUGH
ROTATING EWD AHEAD OF LOW INTO WRN OH VALLEY THIS MORNING AS NOTED
ON BOTH WV IMAGERY AND 500MB HEIGHT FALLS.  50-60 KT MID LEVEL WIND
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND PA TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT AT 16Z MOVING EWD ACROSS LM AND THEN SWWD TO SRN MO WILL
CONTINUE EWD.  A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDES THE FRONT
EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 70F.  STRONG HEATING
WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE WEAK CAP WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
RAPIDLY E OF COLD FRONT. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN IND WILL
FORM SHORT LINES AND BOWS AS THEY MOVE/PROPAGATE EWD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG
SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON ERN OH VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL LINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
DEVELOP A COLD POOL AND MAINTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EWD INTO THE
NIGHT ACROSS PA AND NY GIVEN THE EXTENT OF AVAILABLE  MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CONTINUE EWD THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
CONCERN FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES INTO SERN LOWER MI.  HOWEVER
THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE THIS AREA THAN FURTHER
S...THUS DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.


...MID MS/TN VALLEY... A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AVAILABLE  E OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG
INTO WRN TN VALLEY.  UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH AROUND 30KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR  CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON IN
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS THAN CAN DEVELOP.  WHILE CATEGORICAL
RISK WILL REMAIN SLIGHT WILL INCREASE THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES SWD
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.


...TX...
BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING MCS CONVECTION IN CENTRAL TX WILL LIKELY
FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.  AS
AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/BRIEF DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS  WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

...PAC NW...
S/WV TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS WA/OR ALONG WITH STRONG WIND MAX 
WILL PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NRN
ID INTO WRN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON PRECEEDED BY SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND EVENTS FROM HIGH BASED
STORMS.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.