[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141242
SWODY1
SPC AC 141241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
ROC 30 WSW IPT 35 SW AOO 20 NNW CRW 40 NW HTS 50 SW CMH 25 NE FDY 35
SE DTW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
ART 20 SE UCA 10 S ABE 10 ENE SSU 20 ENE HSS 25 WSW TCL 15 SSE GLH
25 W MEM 35 ESE PAH 45 SSW BMG 45 N LAF 30 NE MSN 25 SE MQT 25 WNW
ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GGW 45 SE LWT
40 WNW JAC 40 NNE EKO RNO 40 S SVE 50 WNW SVE 40 NNW RBL 45 WNW MHS
40 WSW RDM 65 E BLI ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 20 NNE SAD 15 N ONM 15 W
TAD 35 WSW GCK 15 SSW GAG 20 E LTS 10 ESE ADM 15 WNW LIT 25 N DYR 20
SSE MVN 10 W SLO 35 NNW STL 35 SW UIN 20 NW IRK 30 NE DSM 10 E STC
45 NNE ELO ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR OH VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR GRT LKS SWWD INTO
THE TN VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER MN WILL CONTINUE E TO NEAR LK HURON THIS
PERIOD AS LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW OVERSPREADS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN
RCKYS. BELT OF FAST FLOW ON SRN SIDE OF MN LOW WILL GRADUALLY
REDEVELOP E/NE ACROSS THE OH VLY TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NRN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW NOW OVER WI SHOULD SHIFT E MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH
UPR SYSTEM. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SURGES/TROUGHS TRAILING S FROM
THE LOW WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE GRT LKS/OH VLY. FARTHER S...A
PREVIOUS FRONTAL SURGE /IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS OVER THE SRN
PLNS ON MONDAY/ WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE S/SW ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY
AND TX.

...GRT LKS/OH AND TN VLYS...
SEVERAL BANDS OF STORMS/FORWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL LINES EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS INTO THE NRN
APPALACHIANS TODAY/TONIGHT AS SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
OVERSPREADS REGION.  ACTIVITY WILL BE FUELED BY PRESENCE OF RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BROUGHT NWD WITH T.S. ARLENE...MODERATE TO
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SERIES OF
TROUGHS/FRONTAL SURGES ROUNDING SRN SIDE OF SURFACE LOW CROSSING WI
AND MI.

THE MOST SUSTAINED...AND PERHAPS STRONGEST...CONVECTIVE BAND MAY
DEVELOP ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE MAIN COLD FRONT.  THIS FEATURE ATTM
EXTENDS FROM CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL IL AND SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY OVER LWR MI/IND AND
WRN OH /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/.  40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW TO
WSWLY FLOW AND PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO LINES WITH A FEW LONG-LIVED BOWING
SEGMENTS.  THIS MAY YIELD A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT...ESPECIALLY IN OH/WRN PA AND PERHAPS WRN NY.  LONG...
SLIGHTLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS MAY ALSO SUPPORT ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.

THOUGH STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...A LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST EWD INTO ERN PA/ERN NY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

...TN VLY...
MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELDS WILL EXIST ALONG PORTION OF COLD FRONT S OF
OH VLY JET STREAM...BUT CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER /UP TO 2500 J
PER KG/.  WEAK SHEAR/HIGH INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND FRONTAL UPLIFT
MAY YIELD PULSE AND MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND. 

...W TX/ERN NM...
SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WILL FORM LATER TODAY IN AXIS OF STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/ ASSOCIATED WITH RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE PLUME ALONG AND S OF WEAK SRN HI PLNS COLD FRONT. 
VERY WEAK SHEAR /AOB 20 KTS/ SHOULD KEEP INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHORT
LIVED. BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT A FEW
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.  LATE IN THE
PERIOD...STRENGTHENING LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED STORMS IN THE TX PANHANDLE REGION. 

...NRN RCKYS...
SATELLITE DATA SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OFF THE
ORE/WA CST.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER ID AND WRN MT LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. 
RISING HEIGHTS IN DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE MAY DELAY ONSET OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER
REGION.  BUT INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE LIKELY WILL
RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AS 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY.  50-60 KT SWLY MID LVL JET
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE TO ORGANIZE STORMS/PROMOTE
LONGEVITY...AND COULD YIELD A FEW WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 06/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.