[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140526
SWODY1
SPC AC 140524

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
ROC 30 WSW IPT 35 SW AOO 20 NNW CRW 40 NW HTS 50 SW CMH 25 NE FDY 35
SE DTW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
ART 20 SE UCA 10 S ABE 10 ENE SSU 20 ENE HSS 25 WSW TCL 15 SSE GLH
25 W MEM 35 ESE PAH 45 SSW BMG 45 N LAF 30 NE MSN 25 SE MQT 25 WNW
ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP LRD
...CONT... 15 W ELP 35 SE ABQ 50 ESE GUC 30 WNW LIC 25 S GLD 60 NNE
AMA 30 ESE CDS 10 SE DUA 15 NNW LIT 25 ENE POF 30 E SLO MMO 35 ENE
DBQ 10 ENE MCW 15 SSE AXN 30 WNW INL ...CONT... 55 NNW GGW 45 SE LWT
40 WNW JAC 40 NNE EKO 10 SSE SVE 10 WNW RBL 40 W MHS 40 WSW RDM 65 E
BLI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN OH / NRN
AND WRN WV / WRN PA / WRN NY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TREAT LAKES SWWD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW / SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.  

AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER WI SHOULD MOVE ENEWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION...SEWD ACROSS THE TN AND
LOWER MS VALLEYS...SWD ACROSS TX.

...GREAT LAKES / OH AND TN VALLEYS WSWWD INTO TX...
SCATTERED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG / AHEAD OF
FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  AWAY FROM CONVECTION...MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ IN PLACE AHEAD OF
FRONT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN RAPID
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF FRONT.  

AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY / DEVELOP AHEAD OF
FRONT. THOUGH GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM THE TN VALLEY
SWWD INTO TX...MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION.  

EXPECT STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN IN / WRN OH / LOWER MI TO
ORGANIZE RAPIDLY INTO A LINE / BOW ECHO INVOF FRONT.  WITH ROUGHLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW IN THE 35 TO 50 KT RANGE FORECAST AT LOW
TO MID LEVELS...STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EWD / ENEWD.  BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT WIDESPREAD / DAMAGING WIND EVENT TO BE
UNDERWAY -- ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO -- ACROSS ERN OH...WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN PA
/ WRN NY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  THOUGH STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AT LEAST A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST EWD
INTO ERN PA / ERN NY.

FURTHER S ACROSS THE TN VALLEYS...SHEAR SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER.  HOWEVER...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED ALONG /
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH MULTICELL / WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS.

FURTHER WWD...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE WEAKER YET. HOWEVER...STRONG
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS / TRANSPECOS REGION.  STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON NEAR
FRONT...AND NWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM WHERE ELY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT STRONG / SHORT-LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

...NRN ROCKIES...
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW /
NRN ROCKIES WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW. STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ID / WRN MT -- AIDED BY
LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG FRONT / TROUGH...AS AIRMASS BECOMES
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.  WITH 50-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY LIKELY LIMITING
DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GOSS.. 06/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.