[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 132031
SWODY1
SPC AC 132029

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
BKX 40 NE BKX 25 ENE RWF 15 NNW RST 10 WSW LSE 15 W JVL 25 N MMO 20
ESE BMI 20 WSW MTO 15 NNE MDH 25 NW POF 25 ESE HRO 30 WSW PGO 20 N
DUA 25 NNE ADM 20 NE TUL 45 NNW SGF 30 W COU 25 SSW IRK 30 NE P35 30
NNW LWD 25 ENE OMA 45 SE SUX 30 NNW SUX 20 SSW FSD 20 SSE BKX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
GRR 25 SE FWA LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 40 SSW PRX SEP 15
WNW ABI 70 S CDS 40 SE CDS 15 NNE BVO 25 SSE TOP 20 E LNK 60 ENE ANW
9V9 30 ESE ABR 20 W AXN 50 SW DLH 25 SW IWD 30 NW IMT 25 SW ESC 15
SSW MBL 20 SSW GRR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MLB 60 SW MIA
...CONT... 40 W HUM 20 W HEZ 50 WSW MLU 40 W LFK 55 SE AUS 20 S LRD
...CONT... 35 SW P07 20 SE MAF 30 NNE BGS 55 E LBB 15 WNW CDS 30 N
CSM 10 NNW END 35 SW ICT 15 SE HUT 25 ENE RSL 25 N HLC 35 SW IML 20
SSE BFF 35 NNW GCC 65 SW MLS 85 E LWT 70 NE LWT 30 NE HVR ...CONT...
45 NNE FCA 30 SSE FCA 30 SSE 3TH 25 N PUW 40 WSW GEG 20 WSW 4OM 50 W
4OM 65 SE BLI 40 SSE BLI 25 WNW BLI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MIDWEST ALONG THE
MID MS VLY TO THE OZARKS/ERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO N TX...

...IA/SRN MN/SWRN WI TO NRN IL...
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS WAS INCREASING ACROSS THIS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH 80KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREAD EAST ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

STORMS WERE NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN IA AHEAD
OF LARGE SCALE DEEP UPR LOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER
ASCENT ENHANCED ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID LEVEL JET MAX.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MDT
RISK AREA ARE FCST TO INCREASINGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS. TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS STORMS FORM NEARER THE LOW CENTER...FROM
SERN SD INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COUPLE
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
DEVELOP EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER LATER THIS EVENING. DIFFLUENT EXIT
REGION OF MID LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY WHERE GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS REGION.

LATER THIS EVENING....CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO LINE
SEGMENTS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...FROM IA INTO SRN WI AND
NRN IL. WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS AS PROCESS
UNFOLDS.

...WRN IL/MO/NWRN AR/ERN OK...
BAND OF PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE COINCIDENT WITH SRN EDGE OF STRONG MID
LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...WILL PROVIDE THE
IMPETUS FOR INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SHEAR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...FROM MO/SWRN IL...SWWD
TO OK AND N TX...WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS OR
ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT MULTICELLS. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO ALIGN WITH THE
BAND OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...OR ALONG RESULTING STORM
OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

..CARBIN.. 06/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.