[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131632
SWODY1
SPC AC 131630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
FSD 20 E BKX 15 SW MSP 35 NW VOK 25 NNE MSN 20 N CGX 30 WNW IND 20 N
EVV 30 SE MVN 30 WSW MDH 25 E VIH 15 SSW IRK 30 SE DSM FOD 15 ENE
FSD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
GRR 25 SE FWA LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 40 S PRX SEP 30 ENE
ABI 55 N ABI 25 WSW FSI 40 WSW TUL 25 SSE TOP 30 SSW OMA 60 ENE ANW
9V9 35 W ATY 25 SW AXN 60 SSW DLH 25 SW IWD 30 NW IMT 25 SW ESC 15
SSW MBL 20 SSW GRR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE P07 55 W SJT 65
NW ABI 35 WNW LTS 10 S P28 30 WSW RSL 50 WSW HLC 40 SW IML SNY 70
SSE 81V 85 E LWT 35 WSW HVR 20 ENE 3TH 20 SSE GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S
4OM 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 40 W HUM 20 W HEZ 50 WSW MLU 40 W LFK 55 SE
AUS 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 N MLB 60 SW MIA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND UPR MS
VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE
MID/UPR MS VLY...THE OZARKS AND THE SRN PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG NEB CLOSED LOW SHOULD MOVE E/NE INTO SE MN THIS
PERIOD AS UPSTREAM BAND OF FAST WLY FLOW OVERSPREADS PACIFIC NW.  90
KT JET STREAK NOW ROUNDING BASE OF NEB SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
FROM SRN KS INTO NRN MO LATER TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING MORE ENE
INTO IL EARLY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM NE NEB/SE
SD LOW SHOULD SWEEP E INTO CNTRL PARTS OF IA/MO BY EVENING.  FARTHER
E...CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONFLUENCE BAND SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY E
ACROSS IA.

IN THE EAST...REMNANT CIRCULATION OF T.S. ARLENE IS NOW CENTERED
NEAR LAN/FNT.  THE FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS ENE INTO SRN ONTARIO.

...MID/UPR MS VLY...
POTENT SETUP NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL STATES COULD YIELD 
SCATTERED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE
SRN PLNS NEWD INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLYS.

WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND UNINHIBITED HEATING
LIKELY TO CONTINUE...STORMS SHOULD FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN ZONE
OF STRONGEST CONVERGENCE NEAR AND E OF NEB/SD SURFACE LOW. 
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THEN PRECEDE SSE ALONG CONFLUENCE BAND ACROSS SRN
MN INTO CNTRL/ERN IA AND...PROBABLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...INTO CNTRL
MO.

AVERAGE MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG
IN SRN MN/NRN IA TO ABOVE 2500 J/KG IN NRN MO/NW IL.  AT THE SAME
TIME...CONTINUED NE MOTION OF KS SPEED MAX WILL BOOST DEEP SHEAR TO
AROUND 40 KTS IN NRN IA...TO NEAR 60 KTS IN NRN MO.  COMBINATION OF
STRONG INSTABILITY...STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND ORIENTATION OF SHEAR
VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO CONFLUENCE BAND ALL SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR A LONG-LIVED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

GIVEN STRENGTH OF ASCENT/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...EXPECT THAT THE
SUPERCELLS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO BANDS/CLUSTERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD EXTEND A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE E INTO PARTS OF WI/IL/IND BY EARLY TUESDAY.

...OZARKS/ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...
STRONGER CINH AND WEAKER LAGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DELAYED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OZARKS AND ERN
PARTS OF SRN PLNS.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR INITIATION BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT IS
NOW OVER CNTRL KS.  LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
LIKELY WILL ALSO BE OF IMPORTANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN OK AND SW MO.

WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AND 35-45 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...
PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  THE
LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND WILL EXHIBIT LESS
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RELATIVE TO THE MID/UPR MS VLY.  BUT POTENTIAL
WILL NEVERTHELESS EXIST FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY
LARGE HAIL.  THE STORMS COULD MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS/HIGH WIND AS REGION COMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT /JET ENTRANCE REGION OF MID MS VLY SPEED MAX/
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.

...NERN STATES...
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS ME...WHERE MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR INVOF WEAK
TROUGH ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WLYS /30 KT WNW FLOW AT 500 MB/. 
A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD ALSO FORM IN UPSTATE NY...ZONE OF
ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR AND COOLER AIR ALOFT E OF REMNANTS OF ARLENE.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 06/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.