[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131038
SWODY1
SPC AC 131036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
MCW 30 NE RST 35 NW VOK 25 NNE MSN 25 E JVL 25 SSW CGX 10 S DNV 35
SSW HUF 30 SE MVN 25 W MDH 25 E VIH 15 SSW IRK 15 SSE DSM 35 NNE DSM
15 NNE MCW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
BEH 25 SE FWA LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 40 S PRX SEP 30 ENE
ABI 55 N ABI 45 WSW TUL 25 SSE TOP 30 SSW OMA 60 ENE ANW 20 ENE 9V9
35 W ATY 35 SW AXN 45 NNE MSP 35 NE EAU 10 ESE OSH 25 NNE BEH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 45 SW DVL
35 ENE JMS 25 SE TVF 15 E INL ...CONT... 40 W HUM 20 W HEZ 50 WSW
MLU 40 W LFK 55 SE AUS 20 S LRD ...CONT... 90 SSE MRF 30 E INK 25
SSE LBB 40 N CDS 40 ESE LBL 40 W SNY 55 NNE DGW 85 E LWT 35 WSW HVR
20 ENE 3TH 20 SSE GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 20 N
MLB 60 SW MIA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
...EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN OHIO  VALLEY AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY....

POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S...


...CENTRAL U.S...


UPPER LOW LOCATED CENTRAL NEB WILL CONTINUE ENEWD REACHING SWRN MN
AS A STRONG MID/UPPER JET MAX ROTATES FROM CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY/WRN OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT.  THE NEARLY COUPLED SURFACE
LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ALONG WITH UPPER LOW. THESE
DYNAMIC PROCESSES WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

CONCERNS NOTED IN EARLIER DY1 OUTLOOK WITH THE DISRUPTIVE AFFECTS OF
CURRENT MCS ACTIVITY ARE LESSENED. WITH CONVECTION NOW DECREASING AS
IT MOVES ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE TO THE N...AHEAD OF THE LOW SYSTEM...NOW EXPECT
THAT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

TO THE S OF THE LOW CENTER A 60-70 KT 500 MB WIND MAX ACCOMPANIED BY
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL ROTATE NEWD FROM KS ACROSS NRN MO AND
INTO MS VALLEY TODAY.  GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F THE MIXING AND STRONG HEATING
WITHIN DRY SLOT WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES
CLIMBING TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
AHEAD OF THE LOW SYSTEM.

BY MID AFTERNOON WITH 50-60 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR AND A WEAKENING
CAP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM SRN MN/IA INTO
MO.  SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW ACROSS SRN MN/ERN IA INTO WI AND NRN IL WILL FAVOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS IN THE ENHANCED SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.

STORMS WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE LATER FURTHER S ACROSS MO WHERE MORE
HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED.  HOWEVER...STEEP LOW/MID LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG FLOW SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INTO SHORT LINES
AND BOWS BY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE THREAT INTO WRN OH VALLEY.

THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO NRN TX
WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPS RISE THRU THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN
NEAR 7OF... WITH MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 4000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY BE 25KT OR LESS...THE STEEP LOW/MID
LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL
INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. 


...THE NORTHEAST...
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EXIST
ACROSS ME WHERE TROUGH / CONVERGENCE AXIS IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE...AND AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF ARLENE LIKELY MOVING NEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY
AHEAD OF ARLENE REMNANTS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

..HALES/GUYER.. 06/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.