[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130601
SWODY1
SPC AC 130600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
BEH 25 SE FWA LUK 25 S SDF 25 WNW HOP 45 SW ARG 40 S PRX SEP 30 ENE
ABI 55 N ABI 45 WSW TUL 25 SSE TOP 30 SSW OMA 60 ENE ANW 20 ENE 9V9
35 W ATY 35 SW AXN 45 NNE MSP 35 NE EAU 10 ESE OSH 25 NNE BEH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W HUM 20 W HEZ 50
WSW MLU 40 W LFK 55 SE AUS 20 S LRD ...CONT... 90 SSE MRF 30 E INK
25 SSE LBB 40 N CDS 40 ESE LBL 40 W SNY 55 NNE DGW 85 E LWT 35 WSW
HVR 20 ENE 3TH 20 SSE GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 65
NNW DVL 45 SW DVL 35 ENE JMS 25 SE TVF 15 E INL ...CONT... 20 N MLB
60 SW MIA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEB BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AND SHOULD THEN MOVE NEWD WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY REACHING 
THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.  

ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME ALONG A SIMILAR
TRACK...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY / CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY.  BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD ARC FROM WI SWWD ACROSS SERN MO /
AR INTO FAR W TX.

...MID MO / MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS SWWD INTO ERN OK / N TX...
VERY COMPLEX BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO
SHAPING UP FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD...AS 60 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS MOIST / POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS.  SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATING FACTOR...HOWEVER...IS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN KS / ERN OK INTO
NRN / WRN MO.  THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST / MOVE EWD
WITH TIME...AND THUS PRECIPITATION / CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION SHOULD
AFFECT MUCH OF THE DAY 1 RISK AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 13/18Z.

WITH CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION AND SUBSEQUENT AIRMASS RECOVERY
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION / TIME...WILL
REFRAIN FROM A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE ATTM.

HAVING SAID THAT...POTENTIAL DEFINITELY EXISTS SOMEWHERE WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.  WITH 65
KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXTEND NEWD INTO MO / IA / IL WARM
SECTOR...SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENT SUPERCELL
STORMS.  

ATTM...TWO POTENTIALLY MORE FOCUSED AREAS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR TO EXIST.  THE FIRST IS ACROSS SRN MO / NERN OK /
NWRN AR -- AN AREA WHICH MAY BE S OF ONGOING CONVECTION / NEAR A
POTENTIALLY RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THOUGH SHEAR WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION AS AREA WOULD BE S OF MID-LEVEL
JET CORE...INSTABILITY / SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
/ SEVERE THREAT ASSUMING AFOREMENTIONED POSITIONING OF CONVECTION /
OUTFLOW.

A SECOND MORE FOCUSED THREAT AREA MAY EXTEND FROM SERN SD / NERN NEB
ACROSS IA AND ADJACENT SRN MN / SWRN WI...NEAR NOSE OF MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK / JUST N OF POTENTIAL DRY SLOT. AGAIN -- ASSUMING
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE / UNCONTAMINATED AIRMASS WILL EXIST ACROSS
THIS REGION BY AFTERNOON...FAVORABLE SHEAR WOULD EXIST FOR
SUPERCELLS.  ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL...TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION --
PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE BACKED E OF SURFACE LOW.


ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING / OVERNIGHT...WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.  THREAT SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY
REGION OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN -- EFFECTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DETERMINE LOCATIONS OF GREATER OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT.


...THE NORTHEAST...
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EXIST
ACROSS ME WHERE TROUGH / CONVERGENCE AXIS IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE...AND AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF ARLENE LIKELY MOVING NEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY
AHEAD OF ARLENE REMNANTS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 06/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.