[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 122002
SWODY1
SPC AC 122000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
AMA 50 ENE AMA 55 WNW CSM 30 NNE CSM 10 SE END 20 E PNC 15 NW TUL 35
SSW TUL 20 NNW ADM 35 ENE ABI 30 WSW ABI LBB 25 NE PVW 15 E AMA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
P07 25 SE BGS 50 SW LBB 30 NW PVW 10 ENE DHT 50 W EHA 20 NE LHX 25 N
LIC 45 WSW SNY 15 W CDR 45 ENE CDR 25 SW BBW 15 W LNK 40 E SUX 30 N
CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 20 W PRX 45 NE JCT 65 W COT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
OWB 35 SW BMG 20 N BMG 30 S MIE 25 SSW DAY 25 ESE LUK 30 NW JKL 10
SW TYS 35 WSW TYS 35 SSE CSV 40 SW CSV 20 NE BWG 30 NE OWB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE NEL 30 S CXY
20 SW CHO 10 NNW DAN 25 NNW FLO 15 S CHS ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 35
ESE ESF 50 NNW POE 40 NE CLL 55 E SAT 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 85 SSE
MRF 30 WNW CNM 15 SSE ONM 20 N INW 10 NW ELY 45 SW BOI 30 N BKE 50
NW 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE MOT 45 SE JMS 35 SW BRD 60 SSE DLH 20 SSE
ANJ.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NWRN AND W TX
THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN AND OH
VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS...

A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH ONGOING STORMS EXTENDS FROM ERN KS
SWWD THROUGH NRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD POOL IS WELL
DEVELOPED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS NWRN OK...NERN TX
PANHANDLE AND A LARGE PART OF CNTRL KS. MEAN SLY FLOW ABOVE 6 KM IS
SUCH THAT THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY IS BEING DISTRIBUTED INTO THE
COLD POOL...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN
PART OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PORTIONS OVER ERN KS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  THE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO
THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BACKBUILDING INTO
OK ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING. THE MCS
SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO THE MS VALLEY
AREA.

FARTHER S AND W...A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM W TX NWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO
2500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER ERN NM IS CURRENTLY SPREADING EWD THROUGH W TX...AND
CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE DRYLINE. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
LIKELY. THREAT OF TORNADOES MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN THROUGH CNTRL OK AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND AS THE DEEP SHEAR VECTORS BECOME MORE FAVORABLY
ORIENTED WITH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH.


...ERN CO...WRN NEB THROUGH NWRN KS...

STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO ARE SPREADING
NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND MLCAPE OF 500
TO 1000 J/KG EXISTS. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
EXISTS.
 

...TN THROUGH OH VALLEY AREA...

THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE IS CURRENTLY OVER WRN KY.
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS E AND NE OF THE CENTER WHERE VISIBLE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BREAKS BETWEEN RAINBANDS. POTENTIAL FOR
MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING
MITIGATES THE SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 06/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.