[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121631
SWODY1
SPC AC 121629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
AMA 60 E DHT 45 SW GAG 35 WSW END 10 NW PNC 10 N TUL 45 NW MLC 25 W
ADM 35 ENE ABI 30 WSW ABI 15 ESE LBB 35 S AMA 35 NW AMA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
P07 25 SE BGS 45 SE CVS 15 SW DHT 15 SE LAA 45 ENE LIC 30 WSW AKO 40
E CYS 15 W CDR 45 ENE CDR 25 SW BBW 15 W LNK 40 E SUX 30 N CID MLI
40 SSW TBN 20 W PRX 45 NE JCT 65 W COT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OWB 35
NE EVV 10 SSW BMG 50 E BMG 40 WSW LUK 15 NE LEX 20 NNE LOZ 20 NNW
TYS 25 WSW TYS 30 N CHA 50 SE BNA 15 NNW BWG OWB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MOT 45 SE JMS
35 SW BRD 60 SSE DLH 20 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE NEL 30 S CXY 20 SW
CHO 10 NNW DAN 25 NNW FLO 15 S CHS ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 35 ESE ESF
50 NNW POE 40 NE CLL 55 E SAT 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30
WNW CNM 15 SSE ONM 20 N INW 10 NW ELY 45 SW BOI 30 N BKE 50 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN/WRN TX AND
WRN/SRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE
SRN AND CNTRL PLNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING
FROM THE ERN GRT BASIN TO THE SRN RCKYS SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.  SATELLITE/RAOB AND PROFILER
DATA SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM IS STILL INTENSIFYING...WITH EMBEDDED SPEED
MAXIMA APPARENT UPSTREAM AT LEAST AS FAR NW AS ID.  THIS SUPPORTS
MODEL FORECASTS OF SYSTEM CLOSING OFF OVER THE CNTRL PLNS BY 12Z
MONDAY.  FARTHER SE...EMBEDDED IMPULSE NOW OVER SW CO SHOULD
CONTINUE ESEWD TODAY...WHILE SIMILAR FEATURE OVER SE NM LIFTS ENE
INTO TX.

SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE CNTRL STATES HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY RECENT
SERIES OF MCSS WHICH MOVED THROUGH REGION.  A FAIRLY DEEP BAROCLINIC
ZONE...PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY STORMS NOW IN PROGRESS...EXTENDS FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE NE TO NEAR MKC.  FARTHER S...A WEAKER BNDRY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER SW/CNTRL AND ERN OK.

ELSEWHERE...RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE EAST.  REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF T.S. ARLENE...NOW CENTERED NEAR BNA...WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN DEEP S/SWLY FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF
HIGH.

...WRN/NW TX INTO OK/SE KS...
SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE /850
MB DEWPOINTS AOA 16C/...COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF ERN NM VORT LOBE...
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE
AOA 4000 J PER KG/ OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX LATER TODAY...S AND W
OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE NRN PANHANDLE AND NW TX. 
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING/DIFFLUENT MID AND UPR LEVEL WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING LARGER SCALE TROUGH...SETUP WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.

WHILE STRATUS MAY INHIBIT HEATING FOR PART OF THE DAY...AND LINEAR
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN SOME AREAS /E.G. ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY IN
THE TX PANHANDLE AND ALONG WIND SHIFT LINE PROGRESSING E FROM
NM/...THERE WILL LIKELY EXIST SOME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
STRONG/ POSSIBLY DISCRETE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN FRINGES OF
THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH DO DEVELOP.  GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF
LOW LEVEL VEERING AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW...THESE COULD YIELD
A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND
NEWD INTO WRN/SRN OK.

FARTHER S...AREA OF ELEVATED TSTMS NOW N/E OF ABI APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE/MID LVL MOISTURE MAX
WHICH HAS BEEN EJECTED NE AHEAD OF MAIN WRN TROUGH.  ATTM THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED BEYOND AXIS OF STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR/
INSTABILITY.  BUT AS WRN TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES...THE STORMS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD/INSTABILITY.  AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY COULD
BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

THE STORMS WHICH FORM OVER TX/OK AND SE KS LATER TODAY WILL PROBABLY
MERGE INTO SEVERAL BANDS/CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD MOVE/ DEVELOP
GENERALLY NEWD.  THIS MAY EXTEND A THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL NEWD INTO PARTS OF MO/IA TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...
MOIST/BACKED LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NWD FROM THE SRN PLNS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL STORM
ROTATION...IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM OVER PARTS OF NE CO/WRN NEB AND
PERHAPS SW SD. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED
/SBCAPE AOB 1000 J PER KG/...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

...TN/LWR OH VLYS...
REMNANTS OF ARLENE SHOULD TRACK N FROM NEAR BNA TO NEAR EVV BY EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. VWP DATA STILL SHOW AMPLE
/30-40 KT 0-1 KM/ LOW LVL SHEAR ALONG AND TO E OF TRACK TO MAINTAIN
A SMALL CHANCE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN PRESENCE OF RICH
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST SURFACE
HEATING IN PARTS OF KY/TN.

...GRT LKS/NERN STATES...
MUCH OF THIS REGION COVERED BY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR...BUT
SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT ON NRN FRINGE OF RIDGE.  CLOUD
COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.  OVERALL PATTERN 
SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND PULSE IN
NATURE.  ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR IN A
FEW STORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.