[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121143
SWODY1
SPC AC 121141

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
LBL 20 NNW GAG 30 NNW END 40 W ADM 50 SSW SPS 65 NW ABI 10 SE LBB 30
NNW PVW 35 SW LBL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
P07 25 SE BGS 45 SE CVS 15 SW DHT 15 SE LAA 20 E LIC 20 WNW BBW 40 E
SUX 30 N CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 20 W PRX 45 NE JCT 65 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MOT 30 NNW ABR
30 NW RWF 35 E MSP 20 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE NEL HGR 30 ESE MGW
35 ENE CRW 30 N TRI 15 N AVL 40 SE SPA 15 S CHS ...CONT... 40 WSW
HUM 35 ESE ESF 50 NNW POE 40 NE CLL 55 E SAT 45 SSE LRD ...CONT...
85 SSE MRF 30 WNW CNM 15 SSE ONM 20 WNW GNT 10 SSW DPG 30 NNE TWF 25
NNW S80 40 N 4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL AND
SRN ROCKIES WELL DEPICTED IN W/V IMAGERY...WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE UPPER FEATURES ARE WELL
DEFINED THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND ONGOING CONVECTION WHICH WILL
PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE FOCUSING THE LOCATION OF GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT AS CLEAR.

LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS CURRENTLY EVOLVING AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE
EWD ACROSS KS THIS AM...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
UNDERWAY ACROSS SERN CO INTO OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACH OF NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUING LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF 40KT LOW LEVEL JET.

MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING CONVECTIVE SCENARIO
WITH NAM TOO AGGRESSIVE TAKING STORMS EWD ACROSS OK THIS AM AND AS A
RESULT MISHANDLING THE AIRMASS PROPERTIES.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM KS MCS WILL LIKELY EXTEND WWD ACROSS
CENTRAL OK INTO TX PANHANDLE AND BE A FOCUS FOR THE EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS DURING AFTERNOON.  WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
TO 3000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLY VEERED SHEAR
PROFILES...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO BE INITIAL MODE OF STORMS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES LIKELY IN MOST INTENSE STORMS.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ERN NM WILL BE A FOCUS FOR RELATIVELY EARLY
INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS INTO TX PANHANDLE AS UPPER TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD ADVECTION SPREAD EWD THIS MORNING.

THIS POTENTIAL EARLY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AREA OF GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE EXPANSION OF THE SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO PROBABILITIES INTO MUCH OF WRN OK. HOWEVER LOCATION ON E/W
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL DURING
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS THE RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES...GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND AVAILABILITY OF VERY TO EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIR.

AS TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO ONE OR
MORE SEVERE MCS'S AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED INCREASING WIND THREAT.

...TN VALLEY REGION...
REMNANTS OF ARLENE CURRENTLY NWRN AL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NWD TO
OH RIVER WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.  SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG AND TO
E OF TRACK TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN
THE STILL SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE AIR MASS.

...GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES...
MUCH OF THIS REGION COVERED BY A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT ON TOP OF RIDGE...THUS ANY
SEVERE STORM SHOULD REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND MAINLY PULSE IN NATURE. 
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
STORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

..HALES/GUYER.. 06/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.