[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120559
SWODY1
SPC AC 120557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
LBL 30 W GAG 20 NE SPS 45 W MWL 30 WSW ABI 75 ESE LBB 30 ESE PVW 40
NNE AMA 40 SW LBL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
P07 25 SE BGS 45 SE CVS 15 SW DHT 15 SE LAA 20 E LIC 20 WNW BBW 40 E
SUX 30 N CID MLI 40 SSW TBN 20 W PRX 45 NE JCT 65 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HUM 35 ESE ESF
50 NNW POE 40 NE CLL 55 E SAT 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 35
NNE CNM 35 ENE ONM 20 WNW GNT 10 SSW DPG 30 NNE TWF 50 WSW MSO 45 NE
4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE MOT 30 NNW ABR 30 NW RWF 35 E MSP 20 SSE ANJ
...CONT... 25 ENE NEL HGR 30 ESE MGW 35 ENE CRW 20 S 5I3 20 SSW HSS
25 NE AGS 35 SW CHS.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WRN N TX...AND EWD INTO SWRN OK....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS /
MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION SWD ACROSS OK INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
PLAINS STATES THIS PERIOD WHILE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY-NEGATIVE
TILT.  MEANWHILE...LARGE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES AND EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.

AT THE SURFACE...PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT. 
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD
FROM ERN NM / SERN CO TO NRN NEB THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF ARLENE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NWD ACROSS TN /
KY AND INTO IN BY 13/12Z.

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE -- PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF TX AND OK.  A MAIN
COMPLICATING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE
ONGOING STORMS NOW OVER PARTS OF NERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
WRN OK / SWRN KS.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EVOLVING INTO AN
MCS...AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS WRN OK / SRN KS THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS SWRN OK / INVOF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...AND WWD / NWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. 

ONGOING STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AWAY FROM CONVECTION / S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD THEN SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS SWD
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  SCENARIO ACROSS WRN / CENTRAL KS IS MORE
COMPLICATED...AS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT LOCATION /
INTENSITY OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN / BACK WITH TIME ACROSS OK
/ WRN PORTIONS OF TX AS TROUGH APPROACHES.  WITH PERSISTENT SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS.  THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.  ASSUMING PERSISTENT W-E OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOES INDEED EVOLVE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE / SRN OK...THIS
BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

OVERNIGHT...SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE NWD TOWARD NEB WHILE TRAILING
TROUGH STRENGTHENS / SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY FAVOR
MORE LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WITH TIME...AS CONVECTION SHIFTS
EWD ACROSS TX / OK / KS AND TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY.  THOUGH PARTS
OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN STABILIZED TO SOME DEGREE BY
EARLIER CONVECTION...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...NERN CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY...
MOIST AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION.  WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS WI DURING THE DAY...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  ELSEWHERE...LESS OBVIOUS LOW-LEVEL FORCING
MECHANISMS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED STORMS.  

DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER / MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS. 
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE HAIL / WIND PROBABILITY ACROSS
THIS REGION.

...TN VALLEY REGION...
REMNANTS OF ARLENE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NWD ACROSS PARTS OF TN AND
KY THIS PERIOD....WHILE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
-- MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED / BRIEF TORNADO E / NE OF CIRCULATION
CENTER.

..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.