[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120056
SWODY1
SPC AC 120054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 SW
P07 25 NW INK 70 ENE 4CR 25 SW LHX 20 N LAA 15 N P28 20 SE ICT 35 E
OKC 20 E SPS 15 N ABI 35 S DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
LSE AUW 35 WSW CMX 55 NW ANJ 25 SE ANJ 35 E MTW 30 SSE MKE 30 N MLI
20 SSE LSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW GPT 40 ENE MLU
60 SW ARG 20 WSW TXK 10 SW SEP 20 NW LRD ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 SSE
CNM ROW 30 NW SVC 25 NW PHX 20 SSW IGM 30 S U31 75 NW WMC 40 N BNO
25 N PDT 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 40 SSW ACY 10 N SHD 35 SW 5I3 20 SE
CSV 40 ESE CHA 45 WNW AND 10 E AGS 45 SSW CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
OK / SRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN WI AND INTO UPPER
MI...

...SRH HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO SRN KS / THE WRN HALF OF OK...
MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
THIS EVENING...WITH 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED FROM
WRN PORTIONS OF TX INTO OK.  AS WRN U.S. TROUGH SLOWLY
APPROACHES...SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
WLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS /30 TO 40 KT/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SUPERCELL TORNADOES.

ATTM...MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.  WITH
TIME...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EWD /
ENEWD INTO WRN OK AND PERHAPS SRN KS.  THOUGH TORNADO THREAT MAY
DECREASE SOMEWHAT -- PARTICULARLY IF STORM MODE BECOMES MORE
LINEAR...HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST
WITH THIS MCS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD
#1302.

...ERN WI / UPPER MI...
THOUGH AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY STABILIZE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS /
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINS
ACROSS ERN WI INTO PARTS OF THE U. P. OF MI.  STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AS MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD.  GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS
ERN WI INTO PARTS OF UPPER MI...AND 45 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
INDICATED INVOF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...LIMITED THREAT FOR HAIL /
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NWD...WITH OVERALL STORM
WEAKENING TO CONTINUE. A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE --
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- WITHIN BANDS E / NE OF THE
CENTER...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN AL / WRN GA / NRN FL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE.  HOWEVER...EXPECT THREAT TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME AS
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD DECREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH STORM WEAKENING.

..GOSS.. 06/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.