[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091612
SWODY1
SPC AC 091610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
RSL 25 ENE DDC 10 NNW CSM 50 NW CDS 20 ESE AMA 10 SE EHA 50 SE AKO
20 SE SNY 30 NW LBF 15 SE BBW HSI 40 WNW CNK 30 W RSL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
LIC 10 WNW SNY 40 E AIA 35 N BUB 25 SSW YKN 30 ESE SPW 25 NE DSM 15
NE LWD 15 NNE MHK 15 SE SLN 30 N P28 35 S P28 35 NW MLC 35 S MLC 10
SE DUA 40 N ABI 35 W ABI 40 SW SJT 35 E P07 20 SW P07 35 SW FST 25 N
INK 15 SW AMA 40 ENE DHT 25 NE LIC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 25 ESE CNM
35 WSW CVS 50 SE LVS 15 E SAF 20 NW GNT 25 E INW 55 NNE DAG 25 SSE
TVL 25 NNE MHS 40 WNW RDM 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 10 S DVL
35 N FAR 15 WSW DLH 10 NNE IWD 20 NNW MQT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SWRN NEB SWD THRU EXTREME ERN
CO/WRN KS INTO NWRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS NWD THRU
CENTRAL PLAINS TO WRN IA....

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS WRN U.S. WITH BROAD RIDGING IN THE E. 
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD OUT OF WRN TROUGH ACROSS PLAINS. FOR
TODAY ONE S/WV ROTATES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE IMPULSE AND 40KT
SWLY MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES FROM SRN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

LEE SURFACE LOW SERN CO AND DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD THRU WRN TX
PANHANDLE SEPARATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY
ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES W OF DRY LINE AND A SLY FLOW OF RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE E.  WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO E OF DRY LINE AND NWD THRU WRN KS INTO SRN NEB.

COMPLICATING THE SCENARIO OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY IS THE LARGE
SCALE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT ERN KS MCS.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS
CONTINUED S AND W TO A POSITION THIS MORNING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK
THEN NWWD INTO SWRN KS.

12Z NAM RUN FOCUSES INITIATION ON THIS BOUNDARY AT THE EXPENSE OF
THE  DRYLINE.  GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG E OF
DRY LINE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CAP...SOME DEVELOPMENT SEEMS
POSSIBLE E OF DRY LINE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR EXPLOSIVE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND JUST E OF DRY LINE
FROM TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO SWRN NEB.

WITH 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR
SUPERCELLS.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH ANY SUPERCELL IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOS.

THE ELY FLOW TO THE N OF THE PERSISTENT LEE LOW SERN CO...WILL
SPREAD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WWD ACROSS NERN CO FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY PALMER DIVIDE NWD.  MOST
CONSISTENT CONVECTIVE MODEL SIGNAL IS ACROSS NERN CO WHERE
SUPERCELLS WOULD DEVELOP AND THEN PROPAGATE E/NEWD ACROSS NEB AND
NWRN KS THIS EVENING FEEDING OFF 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR.  A MORE ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO MORE OF A SEVERE MCS.

SEVERE STORMS DOWN THE DRY LINE THRU TX PANHANDLE WILL BE INITIALLY
MORE ISOLATED. HOWEVER DURING THE EVENING SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH
INSTABILITY.  AT THAT TIME WIND DAMAGE COULD BECOME MORE COMMON AS
STORMS EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND SMALL BOWS.  AGAIN VERY LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN
FORM PRIOR TO SUNSET.

SWD EXTENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL COULD BE TO
THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY OF SWRN TX.  SHEAR THIS FAR S WILL BE RATHER
WEAK...WITH FEWER STORMS.

..HALES/PETERS.. 06/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.