[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091253
SWODY1
SPC AC 091252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW
RSL 10 S DDC 15 WSW GAG 65 ENE AMA 35 NE AMA 25 SSE EHA 35 S GLD 20
NNE GLD 10 NW MCK 25 W EAR 20 SSW HSI 50 WNW CNK 50 WSW RSL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
LIC 10 WNW SNY 40 E AIA 35 N BUB 25 SSW YKN 30 ESE SPW 25 NE DSM 15
NE LWD 15 NNE MHK 15 SE SLN 30 N P28 35 S P28 35 NW MLC 35 S MLC 10
SE DUA 40 N ABI 35 W ABI 40 SW SJT 35 E P07 20 SW P07 35 SW FST 30
SSW HOB 30 ESE CVS 40 NNE DHT 25 NE LIC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW JFK DOV 45 W
ORF 20 S OAJ ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 30 SSW DVL 20 WSW FAR 25 SSW DLH
IWD 20 NNW MQT ...CONT... 80 S MRF 25 ENE CNM 20 SW CVS 35 WSW DHT
30 ESE RTN 50 ENE 4SL 25 E INW 55 NNE DAG 25 SSE TVL 25 NNE MHS 25
SW BNO 55 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
EXTREME SRN NEB...WRN KS...THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...AND THE NE TX
PANHANDLE....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX NWD TO NEB....

...CENTRAL PLAINS AREA...
WITHIN THE BROAD WRN U.S. TROUGH...DIFFUSE SPEED MAXIMA ARE EJECTING
NEWD FROM SRN NV TOWARD CO...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG SEWD FROM NRN CA TO AZ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM NRN WI AND NRN LOWER MI SWWD
ACROSS IA/ERN NEB/NRN KS TO A LEE CYCLONE IN SE CO. 
OVERNIGHT/ONGOING STORMS HAVE CREATED A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED MESOHIGH THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWWD TOWARD
ERN/CENTRAL OK AND SW KS.  

THE KS/OK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NW KS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S OF THE FRONT AND W/SW OF THE OUTFLOW IN WRN KS/WRN OK/TX
PANHANDLE BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
WILL LIKELY REACH 4000-5000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A BELT OF
25-35 KT LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM TX NWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WRN KS...AND THE ERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER /30-40 KT/ MID
LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN KS/NEB 
LATER TODAY.  THE RESULTANT COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
CONVECTION MAY GROW INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS NW KS AND NEB BY
TONIGHT.  OTHER MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE
INTO W TX.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN OK...THOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY.  

...OH/MS VALLEYS TO THE GULF COAST AND SE ATLANTIC STATES...
SEVERAL SMALL SCALE VORTICITY CENTERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN THE BROAD
MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM WV/OH/IND SSWWD TO THE NRN GULF COAST...WHILE
CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY LEFT A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
INDIANA TO WRN TN/ERN AR.  RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS BROAD AREA. 
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...THOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS.

..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 06/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.