[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091953
SWODY1
SPC AC 091951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
RSL 40 W END 25 SW CSM 35 N CDS 40 ENE AMA 20 SSW LBL 15 SW GLD 20
WSW IML 15 NNW IML 25 S LBF 40 SSW EAR 40 E HLC 30 S RSL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
LIC 40 ESE FCL 10 ESE CDR 35 E PHP 30 WNW BKX 20 WSW SPW 55 WSW DSM
15 NNW STJ 20 SSW EMP 25 NE ICT 30 N PNC 30 SSE PNC 35 SSW TUL 10 N
MLC 25 NNE ADM 45 NNE ABI 25 WSW ABI 40 SW SJT 35 E P07 20 SW P07 35
SW FST 35 WNW INK 30 NE CNM 45 ENE ROW 25 E CVS 25 ENE DHT 10 SSW
LIC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
TVC 20 NW PLN 50 E APN 40 ENE MTC 35 E TOL 25 E FWA 20 ESE SBN 40 NE
MKE 45 WNW TVC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 25 ESE CNM
35 WSW CVS 50 SE LVS 15 E SAF 20 NW GNT 25 E INW 55 NNE DAG 25 SSE
TVL 25 NNE MHS 40 WNW RDM 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 10 S DVL
35 N FAR 15 WSW DLH 10 NNE IWD 20 NNW MQT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB...WRN KS...THE TX AND OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN SD INTO WRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT
LAKES...

...SWRN NEB/WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK...
18Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS MODERATE RISK
AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. MOREOVER...THESE DATA
IN CONJUNCTION WITH CURRENT TIME HEIGHT PROFILER/VWP TENDS INDICATE
INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM NERN NM ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS
INTO SWRN KS. THIS COMBINATION OF MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND
35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MESOANALYSIS...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND VWP DATA INDICATE A CORRIDOR
OF LOWER LFC/LCL HEIGHTS AND LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR DDC SWD INTO NWRN
OK...AS WELL AS NEAR SECONDARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS FROM S
OF MCK TO NEAR HLC TO RSL. GIVEN DISCRETE STORM INITIATION AND
EVOLUTION...AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THESE
AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT SWWD ALONG DRYLINE OVER WRN TX INTO SERN NM. STORMS MAY
CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

FARTHER E...PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL OK. CONTINUED
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...SELY-ELY
SURFACE WINDS INVOF OF BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

OVER NRN NEB INTO SRN SD...LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
NEWD TODAY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY /PER 18Z LBF SOUNDING/. INSPECTION OF
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS THE NEB PNHDL
INTO SWRN SD IS LIKELY DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY.

EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS OF
E-CNTRL SD AND POSSIBLY SWRN MN. DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NEWD
EXTENT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE
HAIL WILL PERSIST FROM ALONG THE SD I-90 CORRIDOR SWWD INTO THE NEB
SANDHILLS.

...LOWER MI...
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED FROM NW OF TOL TO N OF MTC...AS WELL AS W OF APN WITHIN
WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING WITH APPROACH OF MCV CURRENTLY OVER WI. THOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

..MEAD.. 06/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.