[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090545
SWODY1
SPC AC 090543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIC
BFF 10 ESE CDR VTN 20 W YKN 25 SE FSD 20 NNE FRM 10 E MCW LWD MHK
HUT P28 END 40 E OKC ADM 40 S SPS ABI SJT 65 NE P07 10 SW FST HOB 10
NNE CVS 40 SSW LAA LIC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 35 NW INK 30
SW CVS 10 WNW CAO 30 ESE RTN 50 ENE 4SL 25 E INW 40 NNE DAG 20 SSW
BIH 35 ENE BNO 45 N ALW 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 NNW ISN 55 NE BIS 20
SW FAR 25 SSW DLH IWD 20 NNW MQT ...CONT... 20 SSW JFK DOV 45 W ORF
20 S OAJ ...CONT... 10 WSW GLS 25 SW LFK 45 SW TYR 35 WNW ACT 10 ESE
BWD 15 NNW JCT 15 SE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MO
VALLEY....

MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
ALREADY APPROACHING CALIFORNIA...AND WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU TODAY...AS INTENSE UPSTREAM UPPER JET CONTINUES TO NOSE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  WITH APPROACH OF
LATTER SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
EVOLVING LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ATOP VERY MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WESTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY WILL AGAIN EXCEED 4000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES...AT LEAST IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED
BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.

LARGE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD OUTFLOW SLOWLY SURGING
SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...WHERE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT NEW DEVELOPMENT. 
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT A LARGE PART OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
09/12Z...WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL ENHANCE FORCING
ALONG PRIMARY LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
MAINTAINS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

THUS...STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PERHAPS CORRIDOR SOUTH
OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA.  FRONT...DRY
LINE FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS ALL LIKELY WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS INHIBITION
WEAKENS BY/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAY
ENHANCE CONVECTION SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF MORNING CLUSTER...AND EXTENT OF
CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH BROADER
SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER SUPPORT...STRENGTHENING INHIBITION WITH LOSS
OF HEATING WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DEMISE OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE SLOWED BY NOCTURNAL INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL JET...AND MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO APPALACHIANS...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WEAK INHIBITION SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.  WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY TO APPROACH
OR EXCEED 2000 J/KG...LOCALIZED PULSE SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS.  CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED/ENHANCED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS COULD SUPPORT NEW
STORMS CLUSTERS AND BETTER DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND...UPSTREAM...FROM
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

..KERR.. 06/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.