[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090102
SWODY1
SPC AC 090100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MHK 30
S FNB 20 ENE FLV 10 WNW SZL 60 NNW SGF JLN 15 NNW BVO 15 W ICT MHK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
OMA 45 NW LWD LWD P35 JEF SGF 40 WNW FYV TUL PNC 50 SW P28 DDC RSL
50 SSW EAR 10 W MCK IML SNY AIA ANW OFK 15 SSE OMA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE FCA GTF 70 NNE
BIL 20 ENE SHR 50 E WRL BPI 35 WSW MLD 40 WNW OWY 55 ENE RDM 35 WSW
PDT PUW 30 N GEG 50 NW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 10 WNW LFT
30 E POE 40 W POE 35 WSW LFK 60 SSW TYR 45 WSW TXK 40 SW HOT 45 NW
HOT 35 S MLC 20 NNW ADM SPS 55 W ABI 40 WSW SJT 35 NW DRT ...CONT...
65 S MRF MRF INK HOB 55 N HOB 45 SE AMA 45 E LBL EHA 10 WNW TAD 30 S
4FC EGE 40 NNE CAG 30 ENE DGW 40 SSW 9V9 YKN 30 WSW AXN FAR 55 NW
JMS 40 ENE MOT 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 35 WSW MSS SLK LEB 15 ESE PWM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN KS/W CNTRL MO....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME SPLITS DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE JET NOSING ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  IN SOUTHERN BRANCH...AN
IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION
IN CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN
PLATEAU REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/JET STREAK ALREADY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.  MEANWHILE ...FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED 70+ KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MANITOBA/ ONTARIO...GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BENEATH CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SURFACE DRY LINE TYPE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH WIND SHIFT NOW
PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA PROVIDES SOME FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...STRONGER MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS ALREADY LIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO.  COUPLED WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING IN
NARROW PRE-WIND SHIFT MOIST TONGUE ACROSS CENTRAL/ EASTERN
MINNESOTA...AND STABLE EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...PROSPECTS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
APPEAR SLIM.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO EASTERN KANSAS/PARTS OF
WESTERN MISSOURI AND...LATER TONIGHT...WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS ADVECTING OFF THE ROCKIES/PLATEAU HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...ABOVE RETURN FLOW OF LOW/MID 70S DEW POINTS.  THIS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. 
ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  

ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT UPPER FORCING ACROSS THIS
REGION...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. 
ANOTHER LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  SIZABLE MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR
RAIN CORES...SUPPORTING DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG/CONSOLIDATING SURFACE
OUTFLOWS.  EVENTUALLY...OUTFLOWS WILL UNDERCUT THE CORE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND INHIBITION SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT
EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI OR SOUTHWARD MUCH BEYOND EXTREME NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

OVERNIGHT...BACKING OF CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO
IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO
REFOCUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEBRASKA.  AIDED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST A LARGE HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY APPEARS
POSSIBLE BY 06Z ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND POTENTIAL
SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 09-12Z.

..KERR.. 06/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.