[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 082000
SWODY1
SPC AC 081959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
BVO 25 NE ICT 25 E SLN 25 SE BIE 15 WNW FNB 15 ENE FLV SZL 25 S SZL
55 SSW SZL 35 SSE CNU 30 NW BVO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
INL 20 SSW HIB 35 ESE STC 35 N RWF 50 ENE ATY 15 SE FAR 15 N FAR 20
SSE GFK 30 ESE DVL 25 NNE DVL 60 N DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
PLN 25 WNW APN 15 ENE OSC 25 E MTC 35 W EVV 20 ENE CGI 35 NW FYV 40
SSW LTS 45 SE CDS 40 SW CDS 45 NE PVW 40 ENE AMA 45 W P28 30 W SLN
60 SSW HSI 40 NE MCK 25 N IML 35 ESE AIA 45 NNW MHN 25 NE ANW 25 WNW
OFK 50 NNE FNB 25 SSE IRK 20 W UIN 40 ESE BRL 35 ENE MLI OSH 10 ENE
GRB 55 S ESC 30 SSW PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BIS 10 WNW Y22
25 S REJ 10 SSW RAP 45 ESE PHP 25 SW HON ATY 50 SSW FAR 15 S JMS 25
SE BIS ...CONT... 60 S MRF 15 SSE CVS 30 E DHT 50 N LAA 40 SW COS 10
S EGE RWL 30 WSW LND 20 E OGD 60 NW ELY 20 NE WMC 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW
PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 20 SE BHB ...CONT...
25 SE BOS 15 ENE BDR 10 WNW EWR 10 ENE ILG 10 SSW NHK 20 W HSE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN ND THROUGH CNTRL AND
NRN MN...

...ERN KS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN IL SWWD THROUGH NRN MO
THEN NWWD INTO EXTREME SERN NEB WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE
WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE FROM
ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL MO AND INTO OK. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ARE
SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 4000 TO 5000 J/KG. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE MID 90S...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP WWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT OR IN THE
WARM SECTOR WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF GRAVITY
WAVES. WWD BACKBUILDING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE ENHANCED
TOWARD EVENING AS THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARIES
MAY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS
LIKELY AS STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP WWD TOWARD THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER EAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY.

...MN AND ERN ND...

THIS REGION HAS BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE MORNING
MCS DUE TO PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME RECOVERY...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER CNTRL MN...BUT WITH UPPER 50S OVER THE NRN
PARTS OF THE STATE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO
1000 J/KG EXISTS OVER THIS REGION. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
PERSIST OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ND
EJECTS NEWD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MN
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPREADS NEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
THREATS.


...NERN U.S....

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT AND IN VICINITY OF A
BOUNDARY DOWNSTREAM FROM A SEWD MOVING VORT MAX. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...NEB...

INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD THROUGH
NEB TONIGHT UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

..DIAL.. 06/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.