[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081629
SWODY1
SPC AC 081627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
BVO 35 NW PNC 30 SE SLN 25 NNW TOP 10 SE STJ 40 N SZL 25 SSE SZL 35
ENE JLN 20 NNE BVO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
INL 15 WSW DLH 40 NNE MSP 35 SSW STC 50 SSW AXN 35 S FAR GFK 75 N
GFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
ESC 15 NW OSC 40 SSE OSC 25 E MTC 30 SSW STL 45 S JLN 20 ENE CDS 40
WNW CDS 45 W RSL HLC 15 WNW MCK 30 NNE IML 30 SSW MHN 35 SW ANW 45
NE BUB 20 NE FNB 35 NNW IRK 40 W RFD 10 WNW OSH GRB 45 NE GRB 50 S
ESC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MRF 15 SSE CVS
30 E DHT 50 N LAA 40 SW COS 10 S EGE RWL 30 WSW LND 20 E OGD 60 NW
ELY 20 NE WMC 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM ...CONT...
25 SE BIS 10 WNW Y22 25 S REJ 10 SSW RAP 45 ESE PHP 25 SW HON ATY 50
SSW FAR 15 S JMS 25 SE BIS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 15 ENE BDR
10 WNW EWR 10 ENE ILG 10 SSW NHK 20 W HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 20 SE BHB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA...

...SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER WRN U.S. WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS ERN GREAT
LAKES/NERN STATES.  SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING NEWD FROM ND INTO
SRN MANITOBA.

AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW CENTRAL ND SEWD
INTO ERN SD THEN SWD THRU ERN NEB TRAILING ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO NRN
TX PANHANDLE.  FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND
SLOWER SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE OVERNIGHT
MCS CONTINUES TO BUILD S/SEWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY WITH  ASSOCIATED
PRONOUNCED COLD DOME PUSHING SWD.

A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS MAINTAINING A SUPPLY
OF VERY MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE FLOW OF AIR AHEAD OF FRONT AND
INTO SWD PROPAGATING MCS BOUNDARIES.

...CENTRAL U.S...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS AVAILABLE FOR SUPPORT OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THE STREAM OF AIR FROM OK NEWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY.
MARGINAL SHEAR PARTICULARLY S OF OK/KS BORDER IS THE LIMITING FACTOR
IN AN OTHERWISE POTENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. 
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH FULL HEAT AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW
70S...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE GONE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT THRU ERN KS AND MCS
OUTFLOW DROPPING SWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. WITH MLCAPES  AOA 5000
J/KG...AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ERN KS/WRN MO.  IN ADDITION
PARTICULARLY VICINITY BOUNDARIES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY
WHERE LOCALLY LOW LEVEL SHEAR CAN BE ENHANCED.

SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO INSTABILITY AXIS
DURING EVENING TOWARD/INTO NRN OK.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
THE LARGE MCS OVER IA HAS DISRUPTED FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS DAKOTAS. HOWEVER GOOD
HEATING WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF  UPPER
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.  WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY BOWS THAT DEVELOP IN THE STRONG FLOW.

...SRN GREAT LAKES EWD TO NY AREA...
WHILE SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK MUCH OF THIS AREA...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT DEVELOP IN A
MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP PARTICULARLY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS.  LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS SHOULD BE HIGHLY
DIURNAL...DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

...NEB AREA LATE TONIGHT...
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS KS EXPECTED TO RETURN NWWD ACROSS NEB LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS.  WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS IN
THE  UPPER 60S WILL LEAD TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING WAA REGIME N OF THE FRONT...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AFTER 06Z.

..HALES/SCHNEIDER.. 06/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.